Nonfarm payroll jobs added, May 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-05 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 17 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -50000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $790 | $3.8K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| -25000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $661 | $4.5K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| -10000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $179 | $3.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $1.1K | $7.6K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $1.7K | $6.0K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $996 | $22K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $3.3K | $33K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $186 | $14K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $1.3K | $14K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $2.1K | $24K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $904 | $13K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $579 | $21K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $388 | $16K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $2.1K | $20K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 110000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $276 | $16K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $456 | $6.8K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 150000 | 2026-06-05 | 100.0% | $427 | $2.5K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau Of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -50000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of May 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau Of Labor Statistics" ↗ resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will above -50000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above -25000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above -10000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 0 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 10000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 20000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 30000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 40000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 50000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 60000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 70000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 80000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 90000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 100000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 110000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 125000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 150000 jobs be added in May 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-05 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (17 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- May ADP payrolls above 100K priced near a coin flip Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implied May payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 53% above 90K, 41% above 100K, 29% above 125K.
- ADP's 122,000 print beat both the Kalshi market-implied midpoint and the Dow Jones 110K consensus.
- The 29% probability above 125K shows markets had already embedded some upside tail before the print.
- Companion October 2026 ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) implies a softer 70K-80K range, suggesting markets see May as a one-month beat, not a trend shift.
- Private payrolls above 100K in May sits near a coin flip Kalshi 41%
- Kalshi implies May payrolls in the 90k-100k range: 53% above 90k but only 41% above 100k.
- The ADP print of 122k prints above the Kalshi market-implied midpoint, suggesting the prediction market was positioned cautiously.
- The 80% probability above 30k confirms the market ruled out a severe miss well before the print.
- A companion ladder for October 2026 payrolls implies 70k-80k, suggesting market expects hiring to decelerate further.
- May payrolls consensus anchors near 90K-100K range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi's May payrolls ladder implies a central range of 90,000-100,000: 53% above 90K but only 41% above 100K.
- ADP's 122,000 print is above the Kalshi implied midpoint, suggesting the official number could surprise to the upside on Friday.
- The 80% probability above 40,000 and 41% above 100,000 indicates the market sees solid but not strong growth as the base case.
- Resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org official nonfarm payrolls release; revisions to prior months can shift the settlement figure.
- May 2026 payroll consensus anchors near 90K-100K jobs Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi pins May 2026 nonfarm payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 53% above 90K but only 41% above 100K.
- ADP's 122K print is above the Kalshi modal range, suggesting official payrolls could surprise to the upside relative to current market pricing.
- Separately, rising jobless claims (Story 7) and the Challenger report showing 97K job cuts in May (Story 8) argue the ADP beat may not fully carry into the BLS headline.
- The Kalshi contract resolves via FRED/BLS official nonfarm payrolls data; the BLS and ADP series regularly diverge, limiting ADP's predictive edge.
- May payrolls above 80K sits near a coin flip in pricing Kalshi 45%
- Kalshi ladder implies May 2026 payrolls in the 70k-80k range: 77% above 30k, 53% above 70k, only 45% above 80k.
- April's 7.6 million job openings print is consistent with the positive-but-modest payroll range the ladder prices; no market shock implied.
- Companion ladder CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76 for October 2026 shows similar 70k-80k implied range, suggesting the market sees no near-term deterioration.
- Resolves via BLS Employment Situation report for May 2026; the ladder settles at the reported seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll change.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26may/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26may |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26may") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26may",
"question": "Nonfarm payroll jobs added, May 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-jobs",
"employment",
"economic-indicators",
"may-2026",
"labor-market"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 226232,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau Of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}