Negative GDP growth in 2026 stays a long shot
Polymarket 2%
record: CMSIG2026093005 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8 | published: 2026-09-30
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Polymarket puts only 2% on negative GDP growth occurring in 2026, a near-zero probability outcome.
- The Q2 GDP upward revision to 2.2% is directly consistent with the contract's near-zero pricing of a contraction.
- Despite a weak September jobs print of 29,000, the GDP revision suggests underlying output strength the market is crediting.
- Resolution via UMA oracle based on official BEA GDP data; any revision deeper into negative territory for any 2026 quarter would be required.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market
- story
- The U.S. revised Q2 2026 GDP growth up to 2.2% from 1.5%, with inflation remaining steady.exa_search → Asad HASHIM · as_of 2026-10-03T12:59:34+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Asad HASHIM
- published_at
- 2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Polymarket's 2% sits at the floor of plausibility; the GDP revision makes near-term resolution in the 'Yes' direction essentially ruled out by the market.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
external
- venue_a
- polymarket · 0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/negative-2026-gdp-polymarket-2-2026-09-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/negative-2026-gdp-polymarket-2-2026-09-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("negative-2026-gdp-polymarket-2-2026-09-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026093005",
"published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
"target_event_slug": "negative-gdp-growth-in-2026",
"event_question": "Will there be negative GDP growth in 2026?",
"bullets": [
"Polymarket puts only 2% on negative GDP growth occurring in 2026, a near-zero probability outcome.",
"The Q2 GDP upward revision to 2.2% is directly consistent with the contract's near-zero pricing of a contraction.",
"Despite a weak September jobs print of 29,000, the GDP revision suggests underlying output strength the market is crediting.",
"Resolution via UMA oracle based on official BEA GDP data; any revision deeper into negative territory for any 2026 quarter would be required."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Asad HASHIM",
"source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/us-reports-firm-q2-economic-134553724.html",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T12:59:34+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
},
"story": "The U.S. revised Q2 2026 GDP growth up to 2.2% from 1.5%, with inflation remaining steady.",
"publisher": "Asad HASHIM",
"published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/us-reports-firm-q2-economic-134553724.html"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Polymarket's 2% sits at the floor of plausibility; the GDP revision makes near-term resolution in the 'Yes' direction essentially ruled out by the market."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": null,
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Asad HASHIM: US reports firm Q2 economic growth, inflation steady",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/us-reports-firm-q2-economic-134553724.html",
"published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T12:59:34+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "polymarket_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1