November CPI month-over-month stays near flat to slightly negative

Name: November CPI month-over-month stays near flat to slightly negative
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026110602 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48 | published: 2026-11-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder puts November 2026 CPI month-over-month in the -0.1% to 0.0% range: 70% above -0.1% but only 34% above 0.0%.
The U.S. Bank outlook flags persistent inflation eroding spending power even as the labor market stays resilient, the near-flat CPI pricing suggests markets see inflation cooling modestly on a monthly basis.
Only 10% probability above 0.2% and 7% above 0.3% indicates very little expectation of a renewed monthly surge in consumer prices.
The Fed funds ladder (see wire above) prices one more hike, if November CPI prints flat or negative, that could be the last catalyst needed to pause.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: The U.S. Bank weekly outlook notes hiring strengthened in October while layoffs remain unusually low, keeping the economy on a steady but inflation-pressured path.exa_search → usbank.com · as_of 2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00
publisher: usbank.com
published_at: 2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder distribution implies the monthly CPI print for November 2026 is most likely near flat, with the sharp drop in probability above 0.0% reflecting market skepticism about a renewed monthly acceleration.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxcpi-26nov/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nov-2026-cpi-m-m-kalshi-ladder-centered-near-0-1-to-0-0-2026-11-06/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nov-2026-cpi-m-m-kalshi-ladder-centered-near-0-1-to-0-0-2026-11-06.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("nov-2026-cpi-m-m-kalshi-ladder-centered-near-0-1-to-0-0-2026-11-06")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110602",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26nov",
  "event_question": "November 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts November 2026 CPI month-over-month in the -0.1% to 0.0% range: 70% above -0.1% but only 34% above 0.0%.",
    "The U.S. Bank outlook flags persistent inflation eroding spending power even as the labor market stays resilient, the near-flat CPI pricing suggests markets see inflation cooling modestly on a monthly basis.",
    "Only 10% probability above 0.2% and 7% above 0.3% indicates very little expectation of a renewed monthly surge in consumer prices.",
    "The Fed funds ladder (see wire above) prices one more hike, if November CPI prints flat or negative, that could be the last catalyst needed to pause."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "usbank.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. Bank weekly outlook notes hiring strengthened in October while layoffs remain unusually low, keeping the economy on a steady but inflation-pressured path.",
      "publisher": "usbank.com",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder distribution implies the monthly CPI print for November 2026 is most likely near flat, with the sharp drop in probability above 0.0% reflecting market skepticism about a renewed monthly acceleration."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26nov/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "usbank.com: Weekly Economic Outlook | U.S. Bank",
      "url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026110602 published 2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-3f7a69bdcd2… ← underlying event all signals →