November CPI monthly change seen slightly negative on Kalshi

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110608",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26nov",
  "event_question": "November 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts 70% odds on November 2026 CPI rising more than -0.1%, and 22% on clearing 0.0%, implying the market-implied center is in the -0.1% to 0.0% range.",
    "The weak CPI distribution sits in tension with Fed hawkishness: Daly and other officials signal more hikes, but the Kalshi CPI ladder does not price an inflationary surge.",
    "The implied flat-to-slightly-negative monthly print, if realized, could complicate the case for a December rate hike despite strong jobs data.",
    "Resolves via the official CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the ladder uses a greater-than framing, so each strike is an independent binary."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "usbank.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T07:48:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US Bank's weekly outlook notes October hiring strengthened and layoffs remain unusually low, keeping the Fed's inflation-versus-growth balancing act in focus.",
      "publisher": "usbank.com",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder is the sole priced source; no intraday price movement data is available."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26nov/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "usbank.com: Weekly Economic Outlook | U.S. Bank",
      "url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T07:48:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}