October payrolls market stays near 50% on jobs print
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026103001 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76 | published: 2026-10-30
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Prediction market ladder pins October payrolls in the 60K-70K range: 54% above 60K, falling to 41% above 70K.
- The preview story flags a 'steady stream of labor data' but the ladder shows wide uncertainty, with only 26% probability above 100K.
- Trading volume surged 6,732% day-over-day, a strong signal that this contract is drawing significant fresh attention ahead of the report.
- The 34% probability above 80K versus 59% above 50K reflects a market leaning toward a modest but positive print, not a blowout.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- A slate of labor market data culminating in Friday's October jobs report is the marquee economic event for the week of November 2-6.exa_search → Karee Venema · as_of 2026-10-31T14:15:55+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Karee Venema
- published_at
- 2026-10-30T14:00:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- No single venue named for this ladder; volume surge of 68x confirms heightened pre-report positioning activity.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxpayrolls-26oct/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-ladder-2026-10-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-ladder-2026-10-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("oct-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-ladder-2026-10-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026103001",
"published_at": "2026-10-30T14:00:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
"target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
"event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payroll change",
"bullets": [
"Prediction market ladder pins October payrolls in the 60K-70K range: 54% above 60K, falling to 41% above 70K.",
"The preview story flags a 'steady stream of labor data' but the ladder shows wide uncertainty, with only 26% probability above 100K.",
"Trading volume surged 6,732% day-over-day, a strong signal that this contract is drawing significant fresh attention ahead of the report.",
"The 34% probability above 80K versus 59% above 50K reflects a market leaning toward a modest but positive print, not a blowout."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Karee Venema",
"source_url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T14:15:55+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "A slate of labor market data culminating in Friday's October jobs report is the marquee economic event for the week of November 2-6.",
"publisher": "Karee Venema",
"published_at": "2026-10-30T14:00:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "No single venue named for this ladder; volume surge of 68x confirms heightened pre-report positioning activity."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26oct/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T70000",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Karee Venema: What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (November 2-6)",
"url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar",
"published_at": "2026-10-30T14:00:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T14:15:55+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1