OH-12 House race heavily priced for one outcome

Name: OH-12 House race heavily priced for one outcome
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 94%

record: CMSIG2026102108 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RTCH9V4FY5 | published: 2026-10-21

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices the OH-12 House Election Winner contract at 94%, reflecting a near-settled race despite procedural uncertainty in the broader midterm environment.
Voting-rule disputes and Trump's focus on election mechanics introduce tail risk to certifications, but OH-12 at 94% shows the market is not pricing significant result-disruption risk.
The midterm House turnout contract (CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8) saw trading volume surge 43,946% day-over-day, signaling sharp fresh interest in participation-level bets as Election Day approaches.
Resolves via UMA oracle; settlement requires a certified winner in Ohio's 12th district, meaning post-election legal challenges could delay resolution.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The Washington Post reported last-minute battles over midterm voting rules, with Trump focusing on voting machines and voter rolls ahead of November 3.exa_search → Amber Phillips · as_of 2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00
publisher: Amber Phillips
published_at: 2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/21/last-minute-battles-over-how-vote-midterm-elections/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket OH-12 contract at 94%; the midterm House turnout contract drew a 440x day-over-day volume spike, flagging elevated market attention to election mechanics.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/oh-12-house-election-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x6c5e0655740791fcdebcce7ffae3417e9bc14c2606594ae70b93a44c551dbb13

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oh-12-house-winner-polymarket-94-2026-10-21/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oh-12-house-winner-polymarket-94-2026-10-21.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("oh-12-house-winner-polymarket-94-2026-10-21")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102108",
  "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RTCH9V4FY5",
  "target_event_slug": "oh-12-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "OH-12 House Election Winner",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the OH-12 House Election Winner contract at 94%, reflecting a near-settled race despite procedural uncertainty in the broader midterm environment.",
    "Voting-rule disputes and Trump's focus on election mechanics introduce tail risk to certifications, but OH-12 at 94% shows the market is not pricing significant result-disruption risk.",
    "The midterm House turnout contract (CM-EVT-FMNSCSWMC8) saw trading volume surge 43,946% day-over-day, signaling sharp fresh interest in participation-level bets as Election Day approaches.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; settlement requires a certified winner in Ohio's 12th district, meaning post-election legal challenges could delay resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Amber Phillips",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/21/last-minute-battles-over-how-vote-midterm-elections/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Washington Post reported last-minute battles over midterm voting rules, with Trump focusing on voting machines and voter rolls ahead of November 3.",
      "publisher": "Amber Phillips",
      "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/21/last-minute-battles-over-how-vote-midterm-elections/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket OH-12 contract at 94%; the midterm House turnout contract drew a 440x day-over-day volume spike, flagging elevated market attention to election mechanics."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/oh-12-house-election-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Amber Phillips: The last-minute battles over how to vote in the midterm elections - Th",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/21/last-minute-battles-over-how-vote-midterm-elections/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026102108 published 2026-10-21T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-c1e8f1f3a9d… ← underlying event all signals →