Putin leaving Russia's presidency by end of 2026 stays a long shot

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082808",
  "published_at": "2026-08-28T15:46:15.091Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
  "target_event_slug": "putin-out-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Vladimir Putin no longer be President of Russia by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts just 7% odds on Putin no longer serving as Russian president by end-2026, with trading volume up 1,440% day over day, signaling a sharp spike in market attention.",
    "The SCO summit bringing Putin alongside Xi and Modi on the world stage is consistent with the market's strong view that Putin's hold on power remains intact through year-end.",
    "The volume surge without a meaningful move toward 50% suggests the SCO gathering and ongoing war are drawing attention but not shifting the consensus on Putin's political survival.",
    "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; departure by any means including death, resignation, or removal would trigger resolution, making the 7% price a composite of all removal scenarios."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Anadolu Ajansı",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/eurasia/xi-modi-putin-to-meet-in-kyrgyzstan-what-to-watch-at-sco-summit/4040106",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, and Vladimir Putin are set to meet at the SCO summit in Kyrgyzstan, with the bloc representing 3.4 billion people gathering against a backdrop of active conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.",
      "publisher": "Anadolu Ajansı",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T15:46:15.091Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/eurasia/xi-modi-putin-to-meet-in-kyrgyzstan-what-to-watch-at-sco-summit/4040106"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 1,440% volume surge is the sharpest day-over-day trading increase in this batch, making it the strongest signal of fresh market interest even as the probability itself holds near a long shot."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/putin-out-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Anadolu Ajansı: Xi, Modi, Putin to meet in Kyrgyzstan: What to watch at SCO summit",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/eurasia/xi-modi-putin-to-meet-in-kyrgyzstan-what-to-watch-at-sco-summit/4040106",
      "published_at": "2026-08-28T15:46:15.091Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}