Will Vladimir Putin no longer be President of Russia by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2026-12 ]
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31, 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $275K | C | 0x7c063c…5b59 | ||
| August 31, 2026 | 2026-09-01 | 0.0% | $18K | $259K | C | 0xd5dd1a…a2d4 | ||
| September 30, 2026 | 2026-10-01 | 0.0% | $6.0K | $391K | C | 0xc78850…4431 | ||
| June 30, 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 15.0% | $10.0K | $196K | C | 0xcbac06…be3c | ||
| December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 2.2% | $71K | $18.49M | C | 0x6bd566…0d0d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-01 | 0% |
| NO | Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Putin leaving the Russian presidency by year-end stays near zero Polymarket 3%
- Polymarket prices only 3% on Vladimir Putin no longer serving as Russian president by end of 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.
- A massive birthday-timed attack on Ukraine signals Putin's continued grip on power; Polymarket is fully consistent with that read at 3%.
- The Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-355Q75KD17) pricing 6% on Zelensky leaving the Ukrainian presidency by end-2026 shows markets see slightly more leadership risk on the Ukrainian side.
- Resolves via UMA oracle determination of whether Putin formally ceases to hold the Russian presidency before January 1, 2027.
- Putin leaving the Russian presidency by end of 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 4%
- Polymarket prices only a 4% chance Vladimir Putin is no longer President of Russia by end of 2026.
- Ukraine's largest-ever drone attack on Moscow is a significant escalation, yet the Polymarket contract shows the market treating Putin's removal as a deep tail event.
- The 4% pricing implies the attack, while symbolically significant, is not being read as a near-term threat to Russian political stability.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the contract would resolve YES on any scenario in which Putin ceases to hold the presidency, including death, resignation, or removal.
- Putin leaving power by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 5%
- Polymarket puts only 5% odds on Vladimir Putin no longer serving as President of Russia by end of 2026.
- The Russia sanctions bill becoming law represents a significant escalation of Western pressure, yet the market treats it as insufficient to threaten Putin's grip on power.
- A companion Polymarket contract on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal by 2026 sits at 6%, suggesting markets see the sanctions as prolonging conflict rather than forcing a resolution.
- Resolution via uma_oracle; the contract would resolve YES only on confirmed departure from the presidency, a bar the market sees as highly unlikely regardless of sanctions.
- Putin leaving Russia's presidency by end of 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 7%
- Polymarket puts just 7% odds on Putin no longer serving as Russian president by end-2026, with trading volume up 1,440% day over day, signaling a sharp spike in market attention.
- The SCO summit bringing Putin alongside Xi and Modi on the world stage is consistent with the market's strong view that Putin's hold on power remains intact through year-end.
- The volume surge without a meaningful move toward 50% suggests the SCO gathering and ongoing war are drawing attention but not shifting the consensus on Putin's political survival.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; departure by any means including death, resignation, or removal would trigger resolution, making the 7% price a composite of all removal scenarios.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/putin-out-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/putin-out-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("putin-out-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5WJSMVBVS7",
"slug": "putin-out-before-2027",
"question": "Will Vladimir Putin no longer be President of Russia by the end of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"politics",
"russia",
"leadership-change",
"2026",
"head-of-state"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19610258,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}