Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 stays a long shot at 10%

Name: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026 stays a long shot at 10%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-14T07:32:17.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 10%

record: CMSIG2026101404 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3 | published: 2026-10-14

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts only 10% on Russia and Ukraine reaching a ceasefire in 2026.
Active Russian strikes on energy sites covered by Trump's announced ceasefire are consistent with the market's skeptical pricing, the ceasefire is being violated in real time.
A companion Polymarket contract at 6% on Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by 2026 suggests markets see neither peace nor territorial concession as likely this year.
Resolves via uma_oracle; a formal, publicly announced ceasefire agreement between the two parties would be required, partial or unilateral declarations likely would not qualify.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Zelenskyy voiced outrage as Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite a Trump-announced energy ceasefire, with allies reportedly giving no warning of incoming ballistic missiles.exa_search → Hanna Arhirova and Samya Kullab · as_of 2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00
publisher: Hanna Arhirova and Samya Kullab
published_at: 2026-10-14T07:32:17.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-burnham-trump-putin-9fe44ec1bb361f19d46dfafb58da46f6

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 10% is consistent with the on-the-ground reporting: active strikes and no diplomatic framework in place.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-10-2026-10-14/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-10-2026-10-14.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-10-2026-10-14")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101404",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T07:32:17.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 10% on Russia and Ukraine reaching a ceasefire in 2026.",
    "Active Russian strikes on energy sites covered by Trump's announced ceasefire are consistent with the market's skeptical pricing, the ceasefire is being violated in real time.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract at 6% on Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by 2026 suggests markets see neither peace nor territorial concession as likely this year.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle; a formal, publicly announced ceasefire agreement between the two parties would be required, partial or unilateral declarations likely would not qualify."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Hanna Arhirova and Samya Kullab",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-burnham-trump-putin-9fe44ec1bb361f19d46dfafb58da46f6",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Zelenskyy voiced outrage as Russia continued striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite a Trump-announced energy ceasefire, with allies reportedly giving no warning of incoming ballistic missiles.",
      "publisher": "Hanna Arhirova and Samya Kullab",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T07:32:17.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-burnham-trump-putin-9fe44ec1bb361f19d46dfafb58da46f6"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 10% is consistent with the on-the-ground reporting: active strikes and no diplomatic framework in place."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Hanna Arhirova and Samya Kullab: Zelenskyy says Russia keeps striking Ukraine’s energy sites despite Tr",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-burnham-trump-putin-9fe44ec1bb361f19d46dfafb58da46f6",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T07:32:17.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101404 published 2026-10-14T07:32:17.000Z signature sha256-c7b0f0a8887… ← underlying event all signals →