Senate Clarity Act vote count priced below 50 yes votes

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091007",
  "published_at": "2026-09-10T04:38:43.642Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
  "event_question": "Senate yea votes on crypto market structure bill",
  "bullets": [
    "The Senate vote-count ladder prices the Clarity Act below 50 yea votes: only 39% above 50, 29% above 55, and single digits above 62.",
    "Despite Bessent's public push and Armstrong's optimism, the market assigns a majority probability to the bill falling short of the 50-vote threshold needed for passage.",
    "Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said senators he has spoken with are on board, but the ladder's sub-50 center of gravity suggests the market views floor dynamics as far less certain than the lobbying narrative implies.",
    "The Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 sits at just 16%, consistent with the vote-count ladder's pessimistic read on the path through both chambers and to the White House."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "investingLive",
          "source_url": "https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/clarity-act-why-washington-could-be-crypto-s-biggest-september-catalyst/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Senate passage of the Clarity Act after the Senate returned from recess, while Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the bill is ready for a yes vote.",
      "publisher": "investingLive",
      "published_at": "2026-09-10T04:38:43.642Z",
      "source_url": "https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/clarity-act-why-washington-could-be-crypto-s-biggest-september-catalyst/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The vote-count ladder resolves on the official Senate roll-call tally; the 16% Polymarket law-passage contract reflects the sequential hurdles of Senate passage, House concurrence, and presidential signature."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxvoteclarity-26may16/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "investingLive: CLARITY Act: Why Washington could be crypto’s biggest September cataly",
      "url": "https://investinglive.com/cryptocurrency/clarity-act-why-washington-could-be-crypto-s-biggest-september-catalyst/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-10T04:38:43.642Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}