September jobs outlook stays cautious after shock print
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026080701 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3 | published: 2026-08-07
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Ladder pins September 2026 payrolls in the 50K-60K range: 93% above -25K, 83% above zero, but only 44% above 60K.
- July came in at -23K vs. +80K expected; the ladder's subdued September outlook is consistent with a weakening trend.
- October ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) implies 70K-80K, suggesting markets see July as a one-month shock rather than a sustained collapse.
- Both ladders resolve via BLS Employment Situation releases; benchmark revisions could shift implied ranges materially.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- July 2026 nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 against an 80,000 consensus forecast, with 103,000 in downward revisions to prior months.exa_search → financefeeds.com · as_of 2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- financefeeds.com
- published_at
- 2026-08-07T15:31:12.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Ladder distribution data via ClearMarket reference layer; no single-venue attribution available for these ladder events.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxpayrolls-26sep/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-payrolls-ladder-implies-50k-60k-range-2026-08-07/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-2026-payrolls-ladder-implies-50k-60k-range-2026-08-07.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("sept-2026-payrolls-ladder-implies-50k-60k-range-2026-08-07") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026080701",
"published_at": "2026-08-07T15:31:12.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
"target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
"event_question": "September 2026 nonfarm payroll change",
"bullets": [
"Ladder pins September 2026 payrolls in the 50K-60K range: 93% above -25K, 83% above zero, but only 44% above 60K.",
"July came in at -23K vs. +80K expected; the ladder's subdued September outlook is consistent with a weakening trend.",
"October ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) implies 70K-80K, suggesting markets see July as a one-month shock rather than a sustained collapse.",
"Both ladders resolve via BLS Employment Situation releases; benchmark revisions could shift implied ranges materially."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "financefeeds.com",
"source_url": "https://financefeeds.com/july-jobs-report-payrolls-fall-september-fed-cut/",
"retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "July 2026 nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 against an 80,000 consensus forecast, with 103,000 in downward revisions to prior months.",
"publisher": "financefeeds.com",
"published_at": "2026-08-07T15:31:12.000Z",
"source_url": "https://financefeeds.com/july-jobs-report-payrolls-fall-september-fed-cut/"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Ladder distribution data via ClearMarket reference layer; no single-venue attribution available for these ladder events."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26sep/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T60000",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "financefeeds.com: https://financefeeds.com/july-jobs-report-payrolls-fall-september-fed-",
"url": "https://financefeeds.com/july-jobs-report-payrolls-fall-september-fed-cut/",
"published_at": "2026-08-07T15:31:12.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1