September payrolls odds stay near even at 90K-100K

Name: September payrolls odds stay near even at 90K-100K
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-28T04:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026092801 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3 | published: 2026-09-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices the September 2026 payrolls print in the 90K-100K range, with 51% above 90K but only 44% above 100K.
Market consensus from the FX Street story pegs analyst median at 84K, putting the Kalshi distribution slightly above the street estimate.
Steep dropoff above 125K (32%) reflects genuine two-sided uncertainty given strong PMI data versus softening labor signals.
Resolution via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; any government revision methodology change could shift the final figure used.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Jobs report and inflation data due this week will test the Fed rate path and gauge US economic strength.exa_search → Lewis KrauskopfReuters · as_of 2026-09-28T16:24:04+00:00
publisher: Lewis KrauskopfReuters
published_at: 2026-09-28T04:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.postandcourier.com/jobs-report-inflation-data-to-test-us-rate-path-economic-strength-this-week/article_4d2a7542-757e-42d2-87ba-37122414e7dc.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder on September 2026 payrolls shows a near-even split around 90K-100K, consistent with high pre-report uncertainty.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxpayrolls-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-28/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sept-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-28.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("sept-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-28")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092801",
  "published_at": "2026-09-28T04:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZQH465PC3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26sep",
  "event_question": "September 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the September 2026 payrolls print in the 90K-100K range, with 51% above 90K but only 44% above 100K.",
    "Market consensus from the FX Street story pegs analyst median at 84K, putting the Kalshi distribution slightly above the street estimate.",
    "Steep dropoff above 125K (32%) reflects genuine two-sided uncertainty given strong PMI data versus softening labor signals.",
    "Resolution via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; any government revision methodology change could shift the final figure used."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Lewis KrauskopfReuters",
          "source_url": "https://www.postandcourier.com/jobs-report-inflation-data-to-test-us-rate-path-economic-strength-this-week/article_4d2a7542-757e-42d2-87ba-37122414e7dc.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T16:24:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Jobs report and inflation data due this week will test the Fed rate path and gauge US economic strength.",
      "publisher": "Lewis KrauskopfReuters",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T04:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.postandcourier.com/jobs-report-inflation-data-to-test-us-rate-path-economic-strength-this-week/article_4d2a7542-757e-42d2-87ba-37122414e7dc.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on September 2026 payrolls shows a near-even split around 90K-100K, consistent with high pre-report uncertainty."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lewis KrauskopfReuters: Jobs report, inflation data to test US rate path, economic strength th",
      "url": "https://www.postandcourier.com/jobs-report-inflation-data-to-test-us-rate-path-economic-strength-this-week/article_4d2a7542-757e-42d2-87ba-37122414e7dc.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-28T04:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T16:24:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092801 published 2026-09-28T04:00:00.000Z signature sha256-fe3f7ee393f… ← underlying event all signals →