Traders back a recession-free U.S. economy at end of 2026

Name: Traders back a recession-free U.S. economy at end of 2026
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-21T13:25:08+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

69% · $18K 24h

record: CMSIG20261021VS05 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8 | published: 2026-10-21

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices a 69% chance the U.S. economy avoids recession or significant downturn by end of 2026.
31% of all-time volume, $18K, cleared in 24 hours, reflecting fresh macro-data sensitivity.
At 69%, the market leans toward stability but leaves meaningful downside probability as rate and growth data evolve.
Resolves based on defined economic-condition criteria at December 31, 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $17.6K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxeconpath-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXECONPATH-26-OHEAT

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/state-of-the-economy-at-the-end-of-2026-vol-17596/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/state-of-the-economy-at-the-end-of-2026-vol-17596.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("state-of-the-economy-at-the-end-of-2026-vol-17596")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261021VS05",
  "published_at": "2026-10-21T13:25:08+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 69% chance the U.S. economy avoids recession or significant downturn by end of 2026.",
    "31% of all-time volume, $18K, cleared in 24 hours, reflecting fresh macro-data sensitivity.",
    "At 69%, the market leans toward stability but leaves meaningful downside probability as rate and growth data evolve.",
    "Resolves based on defined economic-condition criteria at December 31, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 17596.13
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxeconpath-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXECONPATH-26-OHEAT",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxeconpath-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-21T13:25:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261021VS05 published 2026-10-21T13:25:08+00:00 signature sha256-e2aed5f14a0… ← underlying event all signals →