Hormuz reopening by year-end holds near coin-flip pricing

Name: Hormuz reopening by year-end holds near coin-flip pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-16T03:41:44.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 51%

record: CMSIG2026071601 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-07-16

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts 51% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, a near coin-flip despite active US-Iran military exchange.
US strikes expanding into northern Iran and blockade enforcement are consistent with a market pricing deep uncertainty, not a near-term resolution.
Polymarket separately prices only 1% on Hormuz normalization by July 31, showing the market sees virtually no short-term off-ramp from the conflict.
Kalshi at 7% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran underscores how far markets place any diplomatic normalization.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The US expanded airstrikes into northern Iran and fired on a ship attempting to break its naval blockade, while Iran retaliated against US allies.exa_search → apnews.com · as_of 2026-07-17T09:53:11+00:00
publisher: apnews.com
published_at: 2026-07-16T03:41:44.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-july-16-2026-f98ff56554de2336f0e85bb5fdcae769

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 51% level reflects genuine two-sided uncertainty as kinetic conflict continues.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-51-2026-07-16/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-51-2026-07-16.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-51-2026-07-16")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071601",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T03:41:44.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 51% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, a near coin-flip despite active US-Iran military exchange.",
    "US strikes expanding into northern Iran and blockade enforcement are consistent with a market pricing deep uncertainty, not a near-term resolution.",
    "Polymarket separately prices only 1% on Hormuz normalization by July 31, showing the market sees virtually no short-term off-ramp from the conflict.",
    "Kalshi at 7% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran underscores how far markets place any diplomatic normalization."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-july-16-2026-f98ff56554de2336f0e85bb5fdcae769",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-17T09:53:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US expanded airstrikes into northern Iran and fired on a ship attempting to break its naval blockade, while Iran retaliated against US allies.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T03:41:44.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-july-16-2026-f98ff56554de2336f0e85bb5fdcae769"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 51% level reflects genuine two-sided uncertainty as kinetic conflict continues."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: US expands its airstrike campaign against Iran | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-strait-war-july-16-2026-f98ff56554de2336f0e85bb5fdcae769",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T03:41:44.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-17T09:53:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071601 published 2026-07-16T03:41:44.000Z signature sha256-1e3511fbd40… ← underlying event all signals →