Hormuz normalization by year-end sits near even odds amid escalation

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071905",
  "published_at": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the December 31 Hormuz normalization contract at 51%, just above coin-flip odds, reflecting deep uncertainty about resolution timing.",
    "Fresh US airstrikes on IRGC targets and Iran's suspension of its Islamabad MoU after reporting 50 killed are consistent with a market that has not priced in near-term de-escalation.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-4J73Y3RD96) puts only 1% on Hormuz returning to normal by July 31, confirming the market sees no near-term resolution.",
    "The 50-percentage-point gap between the July 31 (1%) and December 31 (51%) contracts implies the market concentrates resolution probability heavily in Q4 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-forces-launch-new-strikes-on-iran-targeting-irgc-units-centcom/4002538",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-19T09:48:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US forces launched new airstrikes targeting IRGC units in Iran after two US troops were killed in an Iranian attack on a base in Jordan, escalating the Strait of Hormuz conflict.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-forces-launch-new-strikes-on-iran-targeting-irgc-units-centcom/4002538"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolved via UMA oracle; the wide term-structure spread between July and December deadlines is the key signal."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: US forces launch new strikes on Iran, targeting IRGC units: CENTCOM",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-forces-launch-new-strikes-on-iran-targeting-irgc-units-centcom/4002538",
      "published_at": "2026-07-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-19T09:48:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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}