Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 21%

record: CMSIG2026092408 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-09-24

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 21% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026, a long-shot probability.
EU pressure on Iran to restore navigation is a new diplomatic signal, but the 21% Polymarket probability shows markets see a year-end resolution as unlikely.
US-Iran talks described as 'still far apart' (Story 23) and Iran's vow of no surrender are consistent with the low Polymarket probability of a near-term Hormuz reopening.
A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77) prices only 12% on Iran ending uranium enrichment by December 31, confirming the market sees comprehensive Iran deal resolution as deeply unlikely in 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The EU urged Iran to halt strikes on neighbors and restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz during talks with Iranian President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly.exa_search → iranintl.com · as_of 2026-09-24T07:47:37+00:00
publisher: iranintl.com
published_at: 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202609246695

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket binary at 21%; EU diplomatic pressure is noted but the market remains firmly in the 'no resolution by year-end' camp on Hormuz traffic normalization.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-21-2026-09-24/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-21-2026-09-24.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-21-2026-09-24")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092408",
  "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 21% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026, a long-shot probability.",
    "EU pressure on Iran to restore navigation is a new diplomatic signal, but the 21% Polymarket probability shows markets see a year-end resolution as unlikely.",
    "US-Iran talks described as 'still far apart' (Story 23) and Iran's vow of no surrender are consistent with the low Polymarket probability of a near-term Hormuz reopening.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77) prices only 12% on Iran ending uranium enrichment by December 31, confirming the market sees comprehensive Iran deal resolution as deeply unlikely in 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "iranintl.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202609246695",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T07:47:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The EU urged Iran to halt strikes on neighbors and restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz during talks with Iranian President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly.",
      "publisher": "iranintl.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202609246695"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket binary at 21%; EU diplomatic pressure is noted but the market remains firmly in the 'no resolution by year-end' camp on Hormuz traffic normalization."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "iranintl.com: EU urges Iran to halt strikes on neighbors, restore Hormuz navigation",
      "url": "https://www.iranintl.com/en/202609246695",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T07:47:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092408 published 2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-77f5e0a266a… ← underlying event all signals →