Trump NATO summit attendance nears full pricing

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  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070505",
  "published_at": "2026-07-05T02:47:27.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FD56H0NQ25",
  "target_event_slug": "will-trump-attend-nato-summit-279",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 99% probability that Trump attends the NATO Summit, resolved via UMA oracle.",
    "Trading volume on this Polymarket contract surged 2,721% day over day, with the Trump-Putin call and summit framing driving fresh positioning to near-certainty.",
    "At 99%, the market treats Trump's NATO attendance as a near-done fact; the diplomatic activity around the summit is consistent with, not in tension with, that pricing.",
    "Despite near-certain attendance, the companion Polymarket contract on a Ukraine peace deal (CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424) sits at only 18%, showing the market separates showing up from delivering a deal."
  ],
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        "story": {
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          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/russia-says-trump-reaffirmed-readiness-to-help-end-ukraine-war-in-phone-call-with-putin/3986393",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
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      "significance": {
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      "story": "Russia says Trump reaffirmed readiness to help end the Ukraine war in a call with Putin, with the NATO summit in Ankara as the backdrop for settlement discussions.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-07-05T02:47:27.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/russia-says-trump-reaffirmed-readiness-to-help-end-ukraine-war-in-phone-call-with-putin/3986393"
    },
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      "notes": "Polymarket binary contract resolving via UMA oracle; exceptional volume spike confirms the Trump-Putin call elevated this contract to maximum attention."
    }
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  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-trump-attend-nato-summit-279/",
      "related": []
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      "venue_b": null,
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  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: Russia says Trump 'reaffirmed readiness' to help end Ukraine war in ph",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/russia-says-trump-reaffirmed-readiness-to-help-end-ukraine-war-in-phone-call-with-putin/3986393",
      "published_at": "2026-07-05T02:47:27.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
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