Trump, Putin, Zelensky meeting before 2027 stays near 6 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101005",
  "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FNBRJ6KY59",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices a Trump-Putin-Zelensky in-person meeting before 2027 at 6%.",
    "The reported breakdown between Trump and Zelensky over the diesel deal makes a tripartite summit even less likely near term; the 6% level is consistent with that deterioration.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelensky being seen together (CM-EVT-QP1YL1BSS0) also sits at 6%, confirming cross-market alignment.",
    "Resolution via uma_oracle requires documented evidence of all three leaders meeting together before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Barak Ravid",
          "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/10/trump-zelensky-putin-diesel-deal-war",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-10T07:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A US official said Trump cut the Russian diesel deal with Putin after Zelensky ignored Trump's requests, deepening the Kyiv-Washington rift.",
      "publisher": "Barak Ravid",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/10/trump-zelensky-putin-diesel-deal-war"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 6%; resolves via uma_oracle on a confirmed joint appearance of all three leaders."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Barak Ravid: U.S. official: Trump cut deal with Putin after Zelensky ignored his re",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/10/trump-zelensky-putin-diesel-deal-war",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-10T07:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}