Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 priced near zero

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061605",
  "published_at": "2026-06-16T09:02:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-91B1JBJW33",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 2% probability Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia by June 30.",
    "Trump's optimistic G7 rhetoric is sharply at odds with the near-zero pricing: markets see no formal deal as imminent despite diplomatic signals.",
    "The broader year-end contract (CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424) sits at 27%, meaning markets assign some probability of a deal in 2026 but not in the next two weeks.",
    "A Putin-Zelenskyy direct meeting by June 30 (CM-EVT-2DR1P4YZ13) prices just 1%, confirming markets see the diplomatic process as still in early stages."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "channelnewsasia.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/g7-summit-zelenskyy-trump-ukraine-war-russia-6186861",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump said Russia should make a peace deal after a G7 meeting with Zelenskyy, calling both sides open to talks.",
      "publisher": "channelnewsasia.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T09:02:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/g7-summit-zelenskyy-trump-ukraine-war-russia-6186861"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
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      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's June 30 and full-year Ukraine deal contracts together show markets treat Trump's G7 optimism as aspirational, not actionable in the near term."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
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    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
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  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "channelnewsasia.com: Russia should make peace deal, Trump says after 'very good' Zelenskyy",
      "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/g7-summit-zelenskyy-trump-ukraine-war-russia-6186861",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T09:02:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
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    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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