Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 holds below 30 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061807",
  "published_at": "2026-06-18T08:11:58.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices only 27% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027.",
    "A major Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow's Kapotnya refinery, one of the war's largest, is consistent with a market that sees durable peace as unlikely before year-end.",
    "The near-term June 30 peace deal contract (CM-EVT-91B1JBJW33) sits at just 2%, reflecting near-zero probability of imminent resolution despite ongoing diplomacy.",
    "The Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by June 30 contract (CM-EVT-2DR1P4YZ13) is priced at 1%, signaling the market sees no credible near-term leadership engagement either."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/ukraine-hits-moscow-refinery-as-zelenskyy-seeks-trump-support-to-end-war",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-18T11:48:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukrainian drones struck the Moscow oil refinery in one of the largest drone attacks of the war, even as Zelenskyy sought Trump's support to end the conflict.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T08:11:58.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/ukraine-hits-moscow-refinery-as-zelenskyy-seeks-trump-support-to-end-war"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; a formal signed peace agreement, not a ceasefire or MoU, is the likely resolution standard."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Ukraine hits Moscow refinery as Zelenskyy seeks Trump support to end w",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/18/ukraine-hits-moscow-refinery-as-zelenskyy-seeks-trump-support-to-end-war",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T08:11:58.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-18T11:48:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}