Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 holds below majority at 31 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061206",
  "published_at": "2026-06-12T00:08:52.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 31% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, even as Kyiv pursues a deliberate pressure campaign.",
    "Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and industrial sites reflect an escalation strategy, which the market reads as prolonging rather than shortening the conflict timeline.",
    "The June 30 peace deal contract (CM-EVT-CM-EVT-91B1JBJW33) sits at just 4%, placing the full year-end probability at 31% against a near-zero near-term probability.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; a signed ceasefire or peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia must be publicly confirmed before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "meduza.io",
          "source_url": "https://meduza.io/amp/en/feature/2026/06/12/inside-ukraine-s-campaign-to-force-putin-to-the-negotiating-table-by-fall-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukraine is running a campaign of drone strikes on Russian infrastructure to pressure Putin toward negotiations by fall 2026, targeting his willingness to come to the table.",
      "publisher": "meduza.io",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T00:08:52.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://meduza.io/amp/en/feature/2026/06/12/inside-ukraine-s-campaign-to-force-putin-to-the-negotiating-table-by-fall-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 31% year-end versus 4% June 30 split shows the market sees a possible deal window only in the second half of 2026, consistent with Kyiv's stated fall-2026 pressure timeline."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "meduza.io: Inside Ukraine’s campaign to force Putin to the negotiating table by f",
      "url": "https://meduza.io/amp/en/feature/2026/06/12/inside-ukraine-s-campaign-to-force-putin-to-the-negotiating-table-by-fall-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T00:08:52.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}