Unemployment spike above 5 percent remains a long shot
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026060503 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0 | published: 2026-06-05
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi prices only 24% on unemployment exceeding 5% before 2027; above 6% collapses to 8%.
- The strong May print is consistent with the low-tail pricing, markets see a spike above 6-7% as a remote scenario at 7-8%.
- Tech layoff and white-collar layoff markets (CM-EVT-ZTGN9MPFL9 at 89%, CM-EVT-0QDTY1D1Y1 at 72%) suggest sectoral stress that has not yet moved the aggregate unemployment needle.
- Resolves via FRED/BLS unemployment data; contract covers any monthly reading above each threshold reported before January 2027.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- 172,000 jobs added in May showing labor market resilience even as the Iran war weighs on sentiment.exa_search → pbs.org · as_of 2026-06-08T12:25:51+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- pbs.org
- published_at
- 2026-06-05T14:01:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi ladder resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org; the wide gap between 24% at 5% and 8% at 6% reflects the current strong-labor-market baseline.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxu3max-27/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/unemployment-peak-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-24-2026-06-05/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/unemployment-peak-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-24-2026-06-05.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("unemployment-peak-above-5-before-2027-kalshi-24-2026-06-05") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026060503",
"published_at": "2026-06-05T14:01:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
"target_event_slug": "kxu3max-27",
"event_question": "Peak U.S. unemployment rate before 2027",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi prices only 24% on unemployment exceeding 5% before 2027; above 6% collapses to 8%.",
"The strong May print is consistent with the low-tail pricing, markets see a spike above 6-7% as a remote scenario at 7-8%.",
"Tech layoff and white-collar layoff markets (CM-EVT-ZTGN9MPFL9 at 89%, CM-EVT-0QDTY1D1Y1 at 72%) suggest sectoral stress that has not yet moved the aggregate unemployment needle.",
"Resolves via FRED/BLS unemployment data; contract covers any monthly reading above each threshold reported before January 2027."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "pbs.org",
"source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/172000-jobs-added-in-may-showing-market-resilience-despite-iran-war",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-08T12:25:51+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "172,000 jobs added in May showing labor market resilience even as the Iran war weighs on sentiment.",
"publisher": "pbs.org",
"published_at": "2026-06-05T14:01:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/172000-jobs-added-in-may-showing-market-resilience-despite-iran-war"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org; the wide gap between 24% at 5% and 8% at 6% reflects the current strong-labor-market baseline."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxu3max-27/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXU3MAX-27-5",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "pbs.org: 172,000 jobs added in May, showing market resilience despite Iran war",
"url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/172000-jobs-added-in-may-showing-market-resilience-despite-iran-war",
"published_at": "2026-06-05T14:01:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-08T12:25:51+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1