US crypto Clarity Act signing by year-end holds near even odds

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070308",
  "published_at": "2026-07-03T13:04:12.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prediction market prices 52% on the U.S. Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026.",
    "Japan's sweeping crypto tax reform raises the stakes for U.S. competitiveness, and the near-coin-flip Polymarket price suggests U.S. legislation remains genuinely uncertain.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4 prices 40% on any U.S. crypto market structure bill becoming law by January 1, 2027, a 12-point gap that may reflect different bill-scope definitions.",
    "Resolves via congress.gov confirmation that the Clarity Act has been signed into law by December 31, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bitrss.com",
          "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/japan-passes-crypto-bill-to-cut-bitcoin-and-ethereum-tax-rate-from-55-to-20-220046",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Japan's parliament passed a bill classifying cryptocurrencies as financial instruments and cutting crypto gains tax from 55% to 20%, raising global pressure for U.S. crypto legislation.",
      "publisher": "bitrss.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-03T13:04:12.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/japan-passes-crypto-bill-to-cut-bitcoin-and-ethereum-tax-rate-from-55-to-20-220046"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket and Kalshi diverge by 12 points on U.S. crypto legislation passing in 2026, with Japan's reform adding a concrete international benchmark that could accelerate or pressure the U.S. legislative timeline."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bitrss.com: Japan Passes Crypto Bill to Cut Bitcoin and Ethereum Tax Rate From 55%",
      "url": "https://bitrss.com/japan-passes-crypto-bill-to-cut-bitcoin-and-ethereum-tax-rate-from-55-to-20-220046",
      "published_at": "2026-07-03T13:04:12.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}