End-of-2026 recession odds back higher on the smaller venue

Name: End-of-2026 recession odds back higher on the smaller venue
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-29T14:35:30+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 23% vs Kalshi 29%

record: CMSIG20260929DV01 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8 | published: 2026-09-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices a poor economic outcome at 29%, Polymarket at 23%, a 6pp gap on the same year-end resolution.
Kalshi is higher; Polymarket holds roughly six times the liquidity at $47K vs Kalshi's $8.4K.
Divergence likely reflects different question wording or outcome-bucket definitions across venues rather than a true crowd disagreement.
Resolution hinges on how each platform operationalizes 'state of the economy', wording ambiguity is the primary spread driver here.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $20 kalshi_vol_24h: $1

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxeconpath-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x50e3ee8f93a464d04ea2cea6efff45c902f43642aedbf43f7afdc899e10f71d8
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXECONPATH-26-SOFT

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-soft-landing-k28-p23/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-soft-landing-k28-p23.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-economy-soft-landing-k28-p23")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260929DV01",
  "published_at": "2026-09-29T14:35:30+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a poor economic outcome at 29%, Polymarket at 23%, a 6pp gap on the same year-end resolution.",
    "Kalshi is higher; Polymarket holds roughly six times the liquidity at $47K vs Kalshi's $8.4K.",
    "Divergence likely reflects different question wording or outcome-bucket definitions across venues rather than a true crowd disagreement.",
    "Resolution hinges on how each platform operationalizes 'state of the economy', wording ambiguity is the primary spread driver here."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-534611296D); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 20.033158,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 1.44
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxeconpath-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXECONPATH-26-SOFT",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-soft-landing-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T14:35:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260929DV01 published 2026-09-29T14:35:30+00:00 signature sha256-0673d19b43a… ← underlying event all signals →