Recession-state odds build a spread on the major prediction desks

Name: Recession-state odds build a spread on the major prediction desks
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-16T08:24:18+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 11%

record: CMSIG20260816DV03 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8 | published: 2026-08-16

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices 11%, Polymarket 6%, a 6pp gap on the recession outcome of the same claim
Kalshi is the higher venue; liquidity is modest on both sides ($3,011 vs $10,359)
Kalshi's higher recession probability may reflect a different interpretation of the resolution criteria or audience composition
Resolves YES if a defined recession condition is met by end of 2026 per the claim's source methodology

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $50 kalshi_vol_24h: $5

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxeconpath-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x9b1804352d6246bc8b609bc05a3021134269c133bda15e76e05f844539b59774
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXECONPATH-26-STAG

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k11-p5/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k11-p5.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-economy-stagflation-k11-p5")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260816DV03",
  "published_at": "2026-08-16T08:24:18+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 11%, Polymarket 6%, a 6pp gap on the recession outcome of the same claim",
    "Kalshi is the higher venue; liquidity is modest on both sides ($3,011 vs $10,359)",
    "Kalshi's higher recession probability may reflect a different interpretation of the resolution criteria or audience composition",
    "Resolves YES if a defined recession condition is met by end of 2026 per the claim's source methodology"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-DF50C877D3); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 49.94,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 4.72
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxeconpath-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXECONPATH-26-STAG",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-stagflation-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:24:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260816DV03 published 2026-08-16T08:24:18+00:00 signature sha256-a9db05d0bfd… ← underlying event all signals →