US effective tariff rate seen landing in the 7.5-10 percent range

Name: US effective tariff rate seen landing in the 7.5-10 percent range
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026072704 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3 | published: 2026-07-27

4-bullet brief | narrative

Ladder prices the US effective tariff rate most likely in the 7.5-10.0% range: 63% above 7.5% but only 5% above 10.0%.
New tariffs on 80-plus countries are consistent with the ladder moving above the 7.5% threshold, but markets are not pricing a breakout above 10%.
The sharp cliff from 63% to 5% between 7.5% and 10.0% suggests markets see the new round as incremental, not a step-change in the effective rate.
Ladder resolves via customs duties collected divided by nominal import value; partial exemptions or legal challenges could cap the realized rate well below 10%.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Trump imposed new tariffs on more than 80 countries effective Friday, reigniting global trade tensions in an already inflationary environment.exa_search → ABC News · as_of 2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00
publisher: ABC News
published_at: 2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://abcnews.com/Business/trumps-sweeping-new-tariffs-wallet/story?id=135050974

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder distribution; the 92% above 5.0% confirms some tariff regime is fully priced in, but the tail above 10% remains very thin at 5%.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxefftariff-26jul30/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T10

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-effective-tariff-rate-at-7-5-10-ladder-2026-07-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-effective-tariff-rate-at-7-5-10-ladder-2026-07-27.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-effective-tariff-rate-at-7-5-10-ladder-2026-07-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072704",
  "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxefftariff-26jul30",
  "event_question": "US effective tariff rate (customs duties / nominal imports)",
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices the US effective tariff rate most likely in the 7.5-10.0% range: 63% above 7.5% but only 5% above 10.0%.",
    "New tariffs on 80-plus countries are consistent with the ladder moving above the 7.5% threshold, but markets are not pricing a breakout above 10%.",
    "The sharp cliff from 63% to 5% between 7.5% and 10.0% suggests markets see the new round as incremental, not a step-change in the effective rate.",
    "Ladder resolves via customs duties collected divided by nominal import value; partial exemptions or legal challenges could cap the realized rate well below 10%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/trumps-sweeping-new-tariffs-wallet/story?id=135050974",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump imposed new tariffs on more than 80 countries effective Friday, reigniting global trade tensions in an already inflationary environment.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/trumps-sweeping-new-tariffs-wallet/story?id=135050974"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution; the 92% above 5.0% confirms some tariff regime is fully priced in, but the tail above 10% remains very thin at 5%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxefftariff-26jul30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T10",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: What Trump's sweeping new tariffs mean for your wallet - ABC News",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/trumps-sweeping-new-tariffs-wallet/story?id=135050974",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072704 published 2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-5b4fe0c31ce… ← underlying event all signals →