The US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 [ resolves 2026-08-06 (14D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 5% | 2026-08-06 | 95.0% | — | $7.2K | A | KXEFFTARIFF-…-T5 | ||
| ≥ 7.5% | 2026-08-06 | 72.0% | $1 | $494 | A | KXEFFTARIFF-…7.5 | ||
| ≥ 10% | 2026-08-06 | 14.0% | — | $604 | A | KXEFFTARIFF-…T10 | ||
| ≥ 12.5% | 2026-08-06 | 2.0% | — | $74 | A | KXEFFTARIFF-…2.5 | ||
| ≥ 15% | 2026-08-06 | 1.0% | — | $89 | A | KXEFFTARIFF-…T15 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
recent wire items
- US effective tariff rate holds near 7.5-10 percent range Kalshi ladder
- The ladder prices the US effective tariff rate at 7.5-10%, with 63% above 7.5% but only 14% above 10%, implying exemptions and deals will cap the realized rate.
- New tariffs on 60-plus countries covering nearly all imports are consistent with the 7.5% floor being well-priced, but the sharp drop above 10% shows markets doubt full pass-through.
- Exclusions for oil, gas, fertilizer, and certain food items noted in the news are likely driving the ladder's skepticism above the 10% strike.
- Companion event CM-EVT-RJRTFQZDJ0 puts only 20% odds on the Supreme Court hearing a tariff case in 2026, suggesting markets do not expect a rapid legal check on the new duties.
- US effective tariff rate seen landing in the 7.5-10 percent range Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices the US effective tariff rate most likely in the 7.5-10.0% range: 63% above 7.5% but only 5% above 10.0%.
- New tariffs on 80-plus countries are consistent with the ladder moving above the 7.5% threshold, but markets are not pricing a breakout above 10%.
- The sharp cliff from 63% to 5% between 7.5% and 10.0% suggests markets see the new round as incremental, not a step-change in the effective rate.
- Ladder resolves via customs duties collected divided by nominal import value; partial exemptions or legal challenges could cap the realized rate well below 10%.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxefftariff-26jul30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxefftariff-26jul30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxefftariff-26jul30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3",
"slug": "kxefftariff-26jul30",
"question": "The US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-tariffs",
"trade-policy",
"q2-2026",
"economic-indicators",
"customs-duties"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8440,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}