US effective tariff rate holds near 7.5-10 percent range

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072704",
  "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-8P2Y9LGSL3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxefftariff-26jul30",
  "event_question": "US effective tariff rate (customs duties / nominal imports) 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder prices the US effective tariff rate at 7.5-10%, with 63% above 7.5% but only 14% above 10%, implying exemptions and deals will cap the realized rate.",
    "New tariffs on 60-plus countries covering nearly all imports are consistent with the 7.5% floor being well-priced, but the sharp drop above 10% shows markets doubt full pass-through.",
    "Exclusions for oil, gas, fertilizer, and certain food items noted in the news are likely driving the ladder's skepticism above the 10% strike.",
    "Companion event CM-EVT-RJRTFQZDJ0 puts only 20% odds on the Supreme Court hearing a tariff case in 2026, suggesting markets do not expect a rapid legal check on the new duties."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Hugh Leask",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/donald-trump-tariffs-trade-war-iran.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Trump administration unveiled new double-digit tariffs on more than 60 trading partners covering 99.4% of US imports, escalating trade tensions in a different macro environment from last year's Liberation Day.",
      "publisher": "Hugh Leask",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/donald-trump-tariffs-trade-war-iran.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution from prediction markets (venue unspecified in data) reflects the gap between headline tariff rates and realized customs collections after exclusions."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxefftariff-26jul30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXEFFTARIFF-26JUL30-T10",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Hugh Leask: Why Trump's new tariff blitz is different this time round",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/donald-trump-tariffs-trade-war-iran.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-27T11:15:45+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}