Full US invasion of Iran before 2027 stays a long shot at 15%

Name: Full US invasion of Iran before 2027 stays a long shot at 15%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 15%

record: CMSIG2026090207 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-WD982793G1 | published: 2026-09-02

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract on a US invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at 15%, a long shot but non-trivial given the active military exchange.
The current conflict involves airstrikes and base attacks, not a ground invasion; the market appears to distinguish between an air campaign and a full invasion at 15%.
A companion Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling before 2027 sits at 7%, suggesting markets see the conflict as serious but not existential for Tehran.
Resolution via UMA oracle; the contract likely requires ground forces or an explicit invasion declaration to resolve YES, not an expanded air campaign alone.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US bases throughout the Middle East after US CENTCOM strikes killed five people at a wedding, marking the biggest exchange since July.exa_search → Darryl Coote · as_of 2026-09-02T12:29:02+00:00
publisher: Darryl Coote
published_at: 2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/09/02/iran-us-retalitory-strike/9321788328562/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket prices the invasion scenario at 15% and regime collapse at 7% simultaneously, implying the market sees neither outcome as likely even as active military strikes continue.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-15-2026-09-02/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-15-2026-09-02.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-15-2026-09-02")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090207",
  "published_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on a US invasion of Iran before 2027 sits at 15%, a long shot but non-trivial given the active military exchange.",
    "The current conflict involves airstrikes and base attacks, not a ground invasion; the market appears to distinguish between an air campaign and a full invasion at 15%.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling before 2027 sits at 7%, suggesting markets see the conflict as serious but not existential for Tehran.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; the contract likely requires ground forces or an explicit invasion declaration to resolve YES, not an expanded air campaign alone."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Darryl Coote",
          "source_url": "https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/09/02/iran-us-retalitory-strike/9321788328562/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran launched retaliatory strikes on US bases throughout the Middle East after US CENTCOM strikes killed five people at a wedding, marking the biggest exchange since July.",
      "publisher": "Darryl Coote",
      "published_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/09/02/iran-us-retalitory-strike/9321788328562/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices the invasion scenario at 15% and regime collapse at 7% simultaneously, implying the market sees neither outcome as likely even as active military strikes continue."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Darryl Coote: Iran attacks U.S. bases after CENTCOM strike kills 5 at wedding - UPI.",
      "url": "https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/09/02/iran-us-retalitory-strike/9321788328562/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026090207 published 2026-09-02T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-4bbc692a7fc… ← underlying event all signals →