Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | $619K | $36.61M | C | 0x5db999…6846 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- US invasion of Iran pricing holds well below median odds Polymarket 24%
- Polymarket prices a 24% chance the US invades Iran before 2027, despite active and escalating bilateral strikes.
- News of US forces hitting deeper northern Iranian targets sits at odds with a market pricing invasion at only roughly one-in-four odds.
- Kalshi separately prices just 5% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, consistent with no near-term diplomatic resolution.
- The gap between strike escalation and invasion pricing likely reflects markets distinguishing targeted air campaigns from a ground invasion.
- US-Iran invasion pricing wavers amid active Gulf combat Polymarket 18%
- Polymarket prices only 18% on a US ground invasion of Iran before 2027, despite active US air strikes across dozens of Iranian sites.
- Markets distinguish air-strike campaign from full invasion; current news is consistent with limited kinetic engagement, not occupation.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Iranian regime survival has no active price, leaving the invasion-vs-regime-change spread unresolved.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; contract language likely turns on ground troop deployment, not air strikes alone.
- US Iran invasion pricing holds low as diplomacy advances Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket prediction market prices 13% on a US invasion of Iran before 2027.
- Qatar's 'positive progress' report and the Vance 'no return to war' statement are consistent with the low invasion probability, markets are not pricing imminent escalation.
- A companion Kalshi contract at 6% on the US recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader signals markets see regime-change outcomes as even less likely than military action.
- Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle resolution process; the trigger requires a formal US military invasion, not airstrikes or proxy action.
- US Iran invasion by 2027 holds well short of consensus pricing Polymarket 15%
- Polymarket prices a full US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 15%, well short of majority odds despite active strikes.
- Multiple rounds of US strikes and Iranian counter-attacks are live; the market treats invasion as a tail risk, not the base case.
- Bitcoin holding above $60K during the clash is consistent with markets pricing limited conflict, not a broader war scenario.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; resolution would require US ground or sustained air campaign meeting the invasion threshold.
- US invasion of Iran before 2027 wavers at low conviction Polymarket 14%
- Polymarket prices a US invasion of Iran before 2027 at 14%, resolving via uma_oracle.
- Active exchanges including Iranian drone strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait and US counter-strikes are consistent with elevated but minority invasion odds.
- The Iranian regime survival contract at 100% on Polymarket implies markets see escalation as limited, not regime-ending.
- Polymarket's 'UK, France, or Germany strike Iran by June 30' sits at 0%, confirming markets price this as a bilateral US-Iran conflict with no NATO expansion.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
"slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
"question": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"military-intervention",
"us-foreign-policy",
"iran",
"2026",
"conflict-escalation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 36607381,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 13,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}