US invasion of Iran before 2027 stays a long shot at 21%

Name: US invasion of Iran before 2027 stays a long shot at 21%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-28T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 21%

record: CMSIG2026072806 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-WD982793G1 | published: 2026-07-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a 21% chance the United States invades Iran before 2027, a substantial but minority probability.
High-level White House diplomacy with Zelenskyy and Netanyahu, alongside the three-day ceasefire, is consistent with the market staying well below 50%.
The 21% figure reflects a meaningful tail risk rather than a base case, given Trump's simultaneous diplomatic outreach and military warnings.
Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1 prices only 3% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, suggesting full normalization is seen as near-impossible.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The White House prepared for high-stakes talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the Iran and Ukraine conflicts converged.exa_search → euronews.com · as_of 2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00
publisher: euronews.com
published_at: 2026-07-28T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/28/white-house-prepares-for-high-stakes-talks-with-zelenskyy-and-netanyahu

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket binary resolving via UMA oracle; the 21% sits well below the diplomatic-failure threshold that would be needed to shift toward majority pricing.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-21-2026-07-28/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-21-2026-07-28.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-21-2026-07-28")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072806",
  "published_at": "2026-07-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 21% chance the United States invades Iran before 2027, a substantial but minority probability.",
    "High-level White House diplomacy with Zelenskyy and Netanyahu, alongside the three-day ceasefire, is consistent with the market staying well below 50%.",
    "The 21% figure reflects a meaningful tail risk rather than a base case, given Trump's simultaneous diplomatic outreach and military warnings.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1 prices only 3% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, suggesting full normalization is seen as near-impossible."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "euronews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/28/white-house-prepares-for-high-stakes-talks-with-zelenskyy-and-netanyahu",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The White House prepared for high-stakes talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the Iran and Ukraine conflicts converged.",
      "publisher": "euronews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/28/white-house-prepares-for-high-stakes-talks-with-zelenskyy-and-netanyahu"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket binary resolving via UMA oracle; the 21% sits well below the diplomatic-failure threshold that would be needed to shift toward majority pricing."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "euronews.com: White House prepares for high-stakes talks with Zelenskyy and Netanyah",
      "url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/28/white-house-prepares-for-high-stakes-talks-with-zelenskyy-and-netanyahu",
      "published_at": "2026-07-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072806 published 2026-07-28T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-4fb87e4b3b9… ← underlying event all signals →