US invasion of Iran pricing holds well below median odds

Name: US invasion of Iran pricing holds well below median odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-16T07:06:38.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 24%

record: CMSIG2026071602 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-WD982793G1 | published: 2026-07-16

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a 24% chance the US invades Iran before 2027, despite active and escalating bilateral strikes.
News of US forces hitting deeper northern Iranian targets sits at odds with a market pricing invasion at only roughly one-in-four odds.
Kalshi separately prices just 5% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, consistent with no near-term diplomatic resolution.
The gap between strike escalation and invasion pricing likely reflects markets distinguishing targeted air campaigns from a ground invasion.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran targeted US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan as the US expanded strikes into northern Iran and enforced a naval blockade.exa_search → bbc.co.uk · as_of 2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00
publisher: bbc.co.uk
published_at: 2026-07-16T07:06:38.000Z
source_url: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lq1ed28jxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; definition of 'invade' versus sustained air campaign is the key resolution edge case.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-24-2026-07-16/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-24-2026-07-16.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-invades-iran-before-2027-polymarket-24-2026-07-16")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071602",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T07:06:38.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WD982793G1",
  "target_event_slug": "will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 24% chance the US invades Iran before 2027, despite active and escalating bilateral strikes.",
    "News of US forces hitting deeper northern Iranian targets sits at odds with a market pricing invasion at only roughly one-in-four odds.",
    "Kalshi separately prices just 5% on the US reopening its embassy in Iran, consistent with no near-term diplomatic resolution.",
    "The gap between strike escalation and invasion pricing likely reflects markets distinguishing targeted air campaigns from a ground invasion."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bbc.co.uk",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lq1ed28jxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran targeted US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan as the US expanded strikes into northern Iran and enforced a naval blockade.",
      "publisher": "bbc.co.uk",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T07:06:38.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lq1ed28jxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; definition of 'invade' versus sustained air campaign is the key resolution edge case."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bbc.co.uk: Iran targets military bases as US launches wave of strikes - BBC News",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lq1ed28jxo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T07:06:38.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071602 published 2026-07-16T07:06:38.000Z signature sha256-d8338d63490… ← underlying event all signals →