June 30 US-Iran nuclear deal pricing splits at even odds

Name: June 30 US-Iran nuclear deal pricing splits at even odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-21T04:46:43.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 51%

record: CMSIG2026062101 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2 | published: 2026-06-21

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract sits at 51% on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, essentially a coin-flip with nine days to resolution.
Vance's arrival in Switzerland and the launch of formal talks are consistent with a near-even probability, talks are happening but no framework is confirmed.
The longer-horizon Polymarket contract on a deal before 2027 prices at 71%, indicating markets see the timeline as the main risk, not the deal itself.
Resolution via UMA oracle; the June 30 deadline is hard, and Vance signaled he expects to stay only 'a day or two,' leaving little room for negotiation delays.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Switzerland on June 21 to formally launch nuclear negotiations with Iranian officials, seeking to build on a fragile interim ceasefire deal.exa_search → ABC News · as_of 2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00
publisher: ABC News
published_at: 2026-06-21T04:46:43.000Z
source_url: https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/us-vice-president-jd-vance-arrives-switzerland-launch-134069217

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket prices the June 30 deadline at 51% versus 71% for the broader 2027 horizon, a 20-point spread that captures pure deadline risk on these talks.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-51-2026-06-21/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-51-2026-06-21.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-iran-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-51-2026-06-21")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062101",
  "published_at": "2026-06-21T04:46:43.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract sits at 51% on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, essentially a coin-flip with nine days to resolution.",
    "Vance's arrival in Switzerland and the launch of formal talks are consistent with a near-even probability, talks are happening but no framework is confirmed.",
    "The longer-horizon Polymarket contract on a deal before 2027 prices at 71%, indicating markets see the timeline as the main risk, not the deal itself.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; the June 30 deadline is hard, and Vance signaled he expects to stay only 'a day or two,' leaving little room for negotiation delays."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/us-vice-president-jd-vance-arrives-switzerland-launch-134069217",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Switzerland on June 21 to formally launch nuclear negotiations with Iranian officials, seeking to build on a fragile interim ceasefire deal.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-06-21T04:46:43.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/us-vice-president-jd-vance-arrives-switzerland-launch-134069217"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices the June 30 deadline at 51% versus 71% for the broader 2027 horizon, a 20-point spread that captures pure deadline risk on these talks."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: US Vice President JD Vance arrives in Switzerland to launch talks with",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/us-vice-president-jd-vance-arrives-switzerland-launch-134069217",
      "published_at": "2026-06-21T04:46:43.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062101 published 2026-06-21T04:46:43.000Z signature sha256-99baa2e2ebd… ← underlying event all signals →