Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $1.09M | $8.20M | C | 0xa70fc3…7633 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran from rules text · editorial
- an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 wavers on inspection dispute Polymarket 51%
- Polymarket prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 51%, essentially a coin-flip on the near-term deadline.
- IAEA head Rafael Grossi says inspections are coming; Iran's diplomat says only after a final deal, the contradiction directly threatens the June 30 timeline.
- The July 31 Polymarket contract sits at 59% and the pre-2027 contract at 71%, showing the market sees a deal as likely eventually but doubts the June 30 close.
- Resolves via Polymarket uma_oracle assessing whether a formal nuclear deal is reached by June 30; inspection disputes are a classic pre-deadline stall risk.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 sits at near coin-flip Polymarket 51%
- Polymarket prices 51% on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, effectively a coin-flip with four days left in the window.
- IAEA inspections being confirmed is consistent with deal momentum, but the Hormuz drone strike the same day introduces conflicting signals the market has not resolved.
- The companion contract on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30 prices at just 24%, showing the market sees process progress but not a full commitment yet.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the enrichment-end-by-July-31 contract at 29% and by-December-31 at 46% indicate the market expects a deal structure, if any, to take months to finalize.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 sits near coin-flip pricing Polymarket 51%
- Polymarket prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 51%, essentially a coin flip.
- Vance's 'good foundation' language and US sanctions waiver are consistent with the near-even odds, but Iran's denial of enrichment concessions keeps the market from pricing higher.
- The companion Polymarket contract on a deal before 2027 sits at 71%, showing the market assigns strong odds eventually but doubts the June 30 deadline specifically.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; any ambiguity over what constitutes a 'nuclear deal' versus a framework MoU could be a settlement edge case.
- Nuclear deal by June 30 consensus wavers at midpoint Polymarket 51%
- Polymarket prices the US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 51%, a coin-flip reading despite reported major progress.
- Iran cited major progress and a 60-day roadmap, but the June 30 deadline is only 8 days away, explaining market hesitation.
- Technical talks continuing through the week keep the June 30 window alive but narrow; the 60-day roadmap points to a late-August finish.
- The Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; a formal signed agreement, not a roadmap or statement, is likely required for YES resolution.
- June 30 US-Iran nuclear deal pricing splits at even odds Polymarket 51%
- The Polymarket contract sits at 51% on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, essentially a coin-flip with nine days to resolution.
- Vance's arrival in Switzerland and the launch of formal talks are consistent with a near-even probability, talks are happening but no framework is confirmed.
- The longer-horizon Polymarket contract on a deal before 2027 prices at 71%, indicating markets see the timeline as the main risk, not the deal itself.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; the June 30 deadline is hard, and Vance signaled he expects to stay only 'a day or two,' leaving little room for negotiation delays.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2",
"slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
"question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-iran-relations",
"nuclear-diplomacy",
"middle-east",
"2026",
"policy-agreement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8200910,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 43,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}