US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 wavers on inspection dispute

Name: US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 wavers on inspection dispute
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-24T14:18:24.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 51%

record: CMSIG2026062401 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2 | published: 2026-06-24

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 51%, essentially a coin-flip on the near-term deadline.
IAEA head Rafael Grossi says inspections are coming; Iran's diplomat says only after a final deal, the contradiction directly threatens the June 30 timeline.
The July 31 Polymarket contract sits at 59% and the pre-2027 contract at 71%, showing the market sees a deal as likely eventually but doubts the June 30 close.
Resolves via Polymarket uma_oracle assessing whether a formal nuclear deal is reached by June 30; inspection disputes are a classic pre-deadline stall risk.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: IAEA chief says nuclear site inspections will happen under the interim ceasefire deal, but Tehran insists inspections require a final deal first, creating a key sticking point.exa_search → military.com · as_of 2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00
publisher: military.com
published_at: 2026-06-24T14:18:24.000Z
source_url: https://www.military.com/un-nuclear-boss-says-inspectors-will-visit-iran-sites-tehran-says-only-after-a-final-deal

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket prices near-term deal risk as a pure toss-up, consistent with active but unresolved negotiations.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-51-2026-06-24/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-51-2026-06-24.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-iran-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-51-2026-06-24")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062401",
  "published_at": "2026-06-24T14:18:24.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 51%, essentially a coin-flip on the near-term deadline.",
    "IAEA head Rafael Grossi says inspections are coming; Iran's diplomat says only after a final deal, the contradiction directly threatens the June 30 timeline.",
    "The July 31 Polymarket contract sits at 59% and the pre-2027 contract at 71%, showing the market sees a deal as likely eventually but doubts the June 30 close.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket uma_oracle assessing whether a formal nuclear deal is reached by June 30; inspection disputes are a classic pre-deadline stall risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "military.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.military.com/un-nuclear-boss-says-inspectors-will-visit-iran-sites-tehran-says-only-after-a-final-deal",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "IAEA chief says nuclear site inspections will happen under the interim ceasefire deal, but Tehran insists inspections require a final deal first, creating a key sticking point.",
      "publisher": "military.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T14:18:24.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.military.com/un-nuclear-boss-says-inspectors-will-visit-iran-sites-tehran-says-only-after-a-final-deal"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices near-term deal risk as a pure toss-up, consistent with active but unresolved negotiations."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "military.com: UN Nuclear Boss Says Inspectors Will Visit Iran Sites. Tehran Says Onl",
      "url": "https://www.military.com/un-nuclear-boss-says-inspectors-will-visit-iran-sites-tehran-says-only-after-a-final-deal",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T14:18:24.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-25T10:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062401 published 2026-06-24T14:18:24.000Z signature sha256-6344502649d… ← underlying event all signals →