US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 wavers at coin-flip pricing

Name: US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 wavers at coin-flip pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 45%

record: CMSIG2026061001 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-Y2L01CWLW3 | published: 2026-06-10

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 at 45%, essentially a coin-flip despite active exchange of strikes.
Active US-Iran military exchange is consistent with deal uncertainty, yet the market has not collapsed below 50%, suggesting traders still see a negotiated path.
The near-term Polymarket contract on an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15 sits at only 6%, signaling near-zero confidence in imminent de-escalation.
Resolves via UMA oracle; any ceasefire announcement or formal deal document before July 31 would trigger resolution.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US and Iran exchanged strikes overnight, jolting their two-month-old truce and endangering ongoing peace negotiations.exa_search → Patrick Sykes and Omar Tamo Wed, June 10, 2026 at 12:25 p.m. GMT+2 4 min read · as_of 2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00
publisher: Patrick Sykes and Omar Tamo Wed, June 10, 2026 at 12:25 p.m. GMT+2 4 min read
published_at: 2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-iran-attack-other-over-072210630.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket prices the July 31 nuclear deal at 45%, holding well above zero despite active US-Iran strikes, while the June 15 Hormuz side-contract at 6% shows traders see little near-term off-ramp.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xbdb44ce1624dbf80fe70a96e7cb027b854aa44c52cf87a6bd0bc9ea2c332c3dc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-jul-31-polymarket-45-2026-06-10/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-jul-31-polymarket-45-2026-06-10.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-jul-31-polymarket-45-2026-06-10")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061001",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Y2L01CWLW3",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by July 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 at 45%, essentially a coin-flip despite active exchange of strikes.",
    "Active US-Iran military exchange is consistent with deal uncertainty, yet the market has not collapsed below 50%, suggesting traders still see a negotiated path.",
    "The near-term Polymarket contract on an Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15 sits at only 6%, signaling near-zero confidence in imminent de-escalation.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; any ceasefire announcement or formal deal document before July 31 would trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Patrick Sykes and Omar Tamo      Wed, June 10, 2026 at 12:25 p.m. GMT+2   4 min read",
          "source_url": "https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-iran-attack-other-over-072210630.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US and Iran exchanged strikes overnight, jolting their two-month-old truce and endangering ongoing peace negotiations.",
      "publisher": "Patrick Sykes and Omar Tamo      Wed, June 10, 2026 at 12:25 p.m. GMT+2   4 min read",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-iran-attack-other-over-072210630.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices the July 31 nuclear deal at 45%, holding well above zero despite active US-Iran strikes, while the June 15 Hormuz side-contract at 6% shows traders see little near-term off-ramp."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-july-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Patrick Sykes and Omar Tamo      Wed, June 10, 2026 at 12:25 p.m. GMT+2   4 min read: US, Iran Exchange Strikes, Putting Lasting Peace Deal at Risk",
      "url": "https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-iran-attack-other-over-072210630.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:36:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026061001 published 2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-c84dae9d9da… ← underlying event all signals →