US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 pricing wavers at midpoint

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061904",
  "published_at": "2026-06-19T01:36:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the US-Iran nuclear deal at 51% by June 30, a near-coin-flip despite a framework deal being signed.",
    "The Switzerland talks cancellation is consistent with the market's refusal to price a done deal; 49% still prices failure by month-end.",
    "The longer-horizon contract (CM-EVT-VP51KKLQH2) prices 71% for a deal before 2027, showing the market sees eventual resolution but doubts the June 30 deadline.",
    "Uranium enrichment end by July 31 (CM-EVT-8SWDJJDJM0) sits at 29%, revealing deep skepticism about the hardest verification commitments even with a framework in place."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/high-wire-diplomacy-delivered-us-iran-deal-but-hardest-stage-lies-ahead-sources-say/articleshow/131844430.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A US-Iran peace deal was signed June 18, but follow-on Switzerland talks were canceled June 19 as Iran protested Israeli ceasefire violations in Lebanon.",
      "publisher": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-19T01:36:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/high-wire-diplomacy-delivered-us-iran-deal-but-hardest-stage-lies-ahead-sources-say/articleshow/131844430.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the 51% price reflects acute deadline risk given the Switzerland cancellation announced June 19."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
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    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
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  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "economictimes.indiatimes.com: High-wire diplomacy delivered US-Iran deal but hardest stage lies ahea",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/high-wire-diplomacy-delivered-us-iran-deal-but-hardest-stage-lies-ahead-sources-say/articleshow/131844430.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-06-19T01:36:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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}