US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 priced a long shot

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060208",
  "published_at": "2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 28% on a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30.",
    "Public demand for a deal is high per polling, but the prediction market remains well below 50%, signaling skepticism about a June deadline.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract prices only 21% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by June 30, consistent with the low deal odds.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle; the contract requires a confirmed deal by June 30, not merely ongoing talks."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "David Montgomery   Senior data journalist",
          "source_url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/54886-donald-trump-approval-new-lows-inflation-iran-ai-e-jean-carroll-may-29-june-1-2026-economist-yougov-poll",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "An Economist/YouGov poll found 68% of Americans want a deal to end the Iran war quickly, while Trump's approval on inflation hit new lows.",
      "publisher": "David Montgomery   Senior data journalist",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/54886-donald-trump-approval-new-lows-inflation-iran-ai-e-jean-carroll-may-29-june-1-2026-economist-yougov-poll"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; the 7-point gap between deal odds (28%) and enrichment-halt odds (21%) implies the market sees partial deals as also unlikely."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "David Montgomery   Senior data journalist: Trump approval hits new lows on inflation and Iran, AI, E. Jean Carrol",
      "url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/54886-donald-trump-approval-new-lows-inflation-iran-ai-e-jean-carroll-may-29-june-1-2026-economist-yougov-poll",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}