US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 wavers at 28 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061104",
  "published_at": "2026-06-11T22:55:24.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 28% on the US and Iran reaching a nuclear deal by June 30, despite Trump's claims of imminent agreement.",
    "The market is not embracing Trump's optimism, Tehran's public denial that anything is finalized keeps the probability well below 50% for the near-term deadline.",
    "The July 31 horizon contract (CM-EVT-Y2L01CWLW3) sits at 45%, capturing the spread between Trump's weekend-deal rhetoric and the market's skepticism about the June 30 cutoff.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; a signed, publicly confirmed nuclear agreement between the US and Iran must be documented before June 30 to settle YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "pbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-calls-off-threatened-strikes-says-deal-with-iran-is-close",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump called off threatened new Iran strikes and claimed a deal was imminent, while Tehran insisted nothing was finalized.",
      "publisher": "pbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T22:55:24.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-calls-off-threatened-strikes-says-deal-with-iran-is-close"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 28% is in clear tension with Trump's public claims of a near-done deal, reflecting the market fading the presidential optimism signal."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
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      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
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  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "pbs.org: Trump calls off threatened strikes, says deal with Iran is close | PBS",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/trump-calls-off-threatened-strikes-says-deal-with-iran-is-close",
      "published_at": "2026-06-11T22:55:24.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-12T11:42:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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}