US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 sits at a coin flip
Polymarket 51%
record: CMSIG2026061201 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2 | published: 2026-06-12
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Polymarket prices the US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 51%, a near-even split.
- Multiple official signals of imminent signing push the market to a slight lean toward yes, but far from conviction.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June sits at only 18%, flagging market skepticism that a deal translates quickly to restored shipping.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; disputed or partial agreements could complicate settlement.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market
- story
- Trump and Iranian officials signal a war-ending agreement is imminent, with a potential signing in Geneva on June 14.exa_search → ABC News · as_of 2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- ABC News
- published_at
- 2026-06-12T04:05:15.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Polymarket prices the near-term deal probability at 51%, consistent with official optimism but reflecting persistent execution uncertainty.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
external
- venue_a
- polymarket · 0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-51-2026-06-12/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-51-2026-06-12.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-51-2026-06-12") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026061201",
"published_at": "2026-06-12T04:05:15.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2",
"target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
"event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?",
"bullets": [
"Polymarket prices the US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 51%, a near-even split.",
"Multiple official signals of imminent signing push the market to a slight lean toward yes, but far from conviction.",
"Companion Polymarket contract on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June sits at only 18%, flagging market skepticism that a deal translates quickly to restored shipping.",
"Resolves via UMA oracle; disputed or partial agreements could complicate settlement."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "ABC News",
"source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/trump-raising-expectations-time-close-deal-iran-wind-133806942",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
},
"story": "Trump and Iranian officials signal a war-ending agreement is imminent, with a potential signing in Geneva on June 14.",
"publisher": "ABC News",
"published_at": "2026-06-12T04:05:15.000Z",
"source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/trump-raising-expectations-time-close-deal-iran-wind-133806942"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Polymarket prices the near-term deal probability at 51%, consistent with official optimism but reflecting persistent execution uncertainty."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": null,
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "ABC News: Trump is raising expectations that this time he really will close deal",
"url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/trump-raising-expectations-time-close-deal-iran-wind-133806942",
"published_at": "2026-06-12T04:05:15.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "polymarket_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1