Nuclear deal by June 30 consensus wavers at midpoint

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062201",
  "published_at": "2026-06-22T01:39:28.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 51%, a coin-flip reading despite reported major progress.",
    "Iran cited major progress and a 60-day roadmap, but the June 30 deadline is only 8 days away, explaining market hesitation.",
    "Technical talks continuing through the week keep the June 30 window alive but narrow; the 60-day roadmap points to a late-August finish.",
    "The Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; a formal signed agreement, not a roadmap or statement, is likely required for YES resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AFP",
          "source_url": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-us-agree-on-roadmap-to-reach-final-deal-in-60-days-talks-to-go-on-all-week-mediators-say/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-22T13:32:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran and the US agreed on a 60-day roadmap to a final deal after all-night Switzerland talks, with mediators Qatar and Pakistan confirming encouraging progress.",
      "publisher": "AFP",
      "published_at": "2026-06-22T01:39:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-us-agree-on-roadmap-to-reach-final-deal-in-60-days-talks-to-go-on-all-week-mediators-say/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 51% reflects genuine uncertainty: positive headline flow is partially offset by the very short June 30 deadline against a 60-day stated timeline."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AFP: Iran, US agree on roadmap to reach final deal in 60 days, talks to go",
      "url": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-us-agree-on-roadmap-to-reach-final-deal-in-60-days-talks-to-go-on-all-week-mediators-say/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-22T01:39:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-22T13:32:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}