US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 pricing wavers near coin-flip

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062404",
  "published_at": "2026-06-24T09:41:25.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LG47Z78CF2",
  "target_event_slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will the US and Iran reach a nuclear deal by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 at 51%, essentially a coin-flip with only six days remaining.",
    "IAEA confirmation of inspector access is a positive signal, but the public US-Iran dispute over inspection terms keeps the market split.",
    "The July 31 contract (CM-EVT-Y2L01CWLW3) sits at 59%, implying only an 8-point premium for an extra month, signaling compressed timeline doubt.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; a formal signed agreement before June 30 close-of-day is required, not just technical-level arrangements."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "By MARI YAMAGUCHI and JON GAMBRELL",
          "source_url": "https://www.the-journal.com/articles/un-nuclear-agency-boss-says-inspectors-will-visit-irans-nuclear-sites-under-iran-us-interim-deal/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-24T10:45:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "IAEA chief confirmed inspectors will visit Iranian nuclear sites under an interim US-Iran deal, though the two sides publicly dispute inspection scope.",
      "publisher": "By MARI YAMAGUCHI and JON GAMBRELL",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T09:41:25.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.the-journal.com/articles/un-nuclear-agency-boss-says-inspectors-will-visit-irans-nuclear-sites-under-iran-us-interim-deal/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's June 30 (51%) and July 31 (59%) contracts show a flat term structure, suggesting the market assigns most probability mass to a near-term resolution or none at all."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "By MARI YAMAGUCHI and JON GAMBRELL: UN nuclear agency boss says inspectors will visit Iran's nuclear sites",
      "url": "https://www.the-journal.com/articles/un-nuclear-agency-boss-says-inspectors-will-visit-irans-nuclear-sites-under-iran-us-interim-deal/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-24T09:41:25.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-24T10:45:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}