Recession by year-end consensus holds at deep discount

Name: Recession by year-end consensus holds at deep discount
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-10T09:40:23.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 11%

record: CMSIG2026071003 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-943Z5Y3NP4 | published: 2026-07-10

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract prices only 11% probability on a US recession declared by end of 2026, resolved via UMA oracle.
RSM's easing-supply-shock narrative aligns with the market's low recession pricing; the two readings reinforce rather than contradict each other.
Kalshi's parallel contract (CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1) also sits at 11% via Bureau of Economic Analysis, showing cross-venue consensus with no gap to arbitrage.
Resolves via UMA oracle using BEA GDP data; back-to-back negative real GDP quarters is the conventional trigger, making the Q3-Q4 2026 prints the key datapoints.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: RSM's midyear update argued supply shocks are easing, consistent with a soft-landing scenario heading into the second half of 2026.exa_search → Joseph Brusuelas · as_of 2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00
publisher: Joseph Brusuelas
published_at: 2026-07-10T09:40:23.000Z
source_url: https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-midyear-economic-update-supply-shocks-ease/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket and Kalshi both price 11% on recession this year, confirming cross-venue alignment; no venue gap exists at current marks.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/us-recession-by-end-of-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-by-end-2026-polymarket-11-2026-07-10/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-recession-by-end-2026-polymarket-11-2026-07-10.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-recession-by-end-2026-polymarket-11-2026-07-10")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071003",
  "published_at": "2026-07-10T09:40:23.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-943Z5Y3NP4",
  "target_event_slug": "us-recession-by-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the United States enter a recession by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices only 11% probability on a US recession declared by end of 2026, resolved via UMA oracle.",
    "RSM's easing-supply-shock narrative aligns with the market's low recession pricing; the two readings reinforce rather than contradict each other.",
    "Kalshi's parallel contract (CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1) also sits at 11% via Bureau of Economic Analysis, showing cross-venue consensus with no gap to arbitrage.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle using BEA GDP data; back-to-back negative real GDP quarters is the conventional trigger, making the Q3-Q4 2026 prints the key datapoints."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Joseph Brusuelas",
          "source_url": "https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-midyear-economic-update-supply-shocks-ease/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "RSM's midyear update argued supply shocks are easing, consistent with a soft-landing scenario heading into the second half of 2026.",
      "publisher": "Joseph Brusuelas",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T09:40:23.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-midyear-economic-update-supply-shocks-ease/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket and Kalshi both price 11% on recession this year, confirming cross-venue alignment; no venue gap exists at current marks."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-recession-by-end-of-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Joseph Brusuelas: RSM’s U.S. midyear economic update: Supply shocks ease",
      "url": "https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-midyear-economic-update-supply-shocks-ease/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T09:40:23.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-11T09:24:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071003 published 2026-07-10T09:40:23.000Z signature sha256-e80e385ed23… ← underlying event all signals →