Recession by end of 2026 stays near 50% despite soft-landing talk

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081403",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Z32WPK4K45",
  "target_event_slug": "us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the US economy be in recession at the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on a US recession by end of 2026 sits at 53%, keeping odds just above even despite the week's soft-landing narrative.",
    "Soft retail sales, cooling PPI, and subdued jobless claims are consistent with a soft landing, yet the contract above 50% shows the market has not embraced that outcome fully.",
    "Cross-market: Kalshi's separate US recession contract (Bureau of Economic Analysis resolution) prices the probability at just 4%, a stark gap versus Polymarket's 53%, likely reflecting differing resolution definitions and timelines.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle based on official US GDP data."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradingkey.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed September rate-hike expectations dropped to 30% as cooling inflation, jobs, and retail spending fueled soft-landing optimism, with the S&P 500 topping 7,800.",
      "publisher": "tradingkey.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 53% and Kalshi at 4% on US recession reflect materially different resolution criteria; readers should weigh both venues with that definitional gap in mind."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
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  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradingkey.com: Fed September Rate Hike Expectations Drop to 30% as Inflation, Jobs, a",
      "url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262108725-fed-september-hike-cools-soft-landing-sp500-7800-tradingkey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T15:41:15.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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}