US reopening Iran embassy stays close to zero probability

Name: US reopening Iran embassy stays close to zero probability
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-26T13:20:19.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 2%

record: CMSIG2026102608 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1 | published: 2026-10-26

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Kalshi prediction market prices the U.S. reopening its embassy in Iran at just 2%.
Trading volume on this contract rose 14,724% day over day, a sharp surge consistent with the news that U.S. personnel are being drawn down, not redeployed, in the region.
Embassy staff reductions and heightened alert are the opposite of normalization, making the 2% pricing directionally aligned with the news even as volume spikes on attention.
Resolves via The New York Times as the named source; formal reopening would require a diplomatic breakthrough well beyond current conditions.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: The U.S. government put Middle East embassy staff on heightened alert and moved to reduce personnel at embassies and consulates after intelligence showed Iran is preparing potential retaliatory action.exa_search → Ammanuel Desta · as_of 2026-10-26T14:48:08+00:00
publisher: Ammanuel Desta
published_at: 2026-10-26T13:20:19.000Z
source_url: https://www.justsecurity.org/162014/early-edition-october-26-2026/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi at 2% with volume up nearly 148x day over day captures a market that is watching the Iran crisis intensify while keeping normalization firmly off the table.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxiranembassy-27/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIRANEMBASSY-27

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-reopens-embassy-in-iran-kalshi-2-2026-10-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-reopens-embassy-in-iran-kalshi-2-2026-10-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-reopens-embassy-in-iran-kalshi-2-2026-10-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102608",
  "published_at": "2026-10-26T13:20:19.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-34SYT4T2T1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxiranembassy-27",
  "event_question": "Will the United States reopen its embassy in Iran?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices the U.S. reopening its embassy in Iran at just 2%.",
    "Trading volume on this contract rose 14,724% day over day, a sharp surge consistent with the news that U.S. personnel are being drawn down, not redeployed, in the region.",
    "Embassy staff reductions and heightened alert are the opposite of normalization, making the 2% pricing directionally aligned with the news even as volume spikes on attention.",
    "Resolves via The New York Times as the named source; formal reopening would require a diplomatic breakthrough well beyond current conditions."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ammanuel Desta",
          "source_url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/162014/early-edition-october-26-2026/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:08+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. government put Middle East embassy staff on heightened alert and moved to reduce personnel at embassies and consulates after intelligence showed Iran is preparing potential retaliatory action.",
      "publisher": "Ammanuel Desta",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T13:20:19.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/162014/early-edition-october-26-2026/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 2% with volume up nearly 148x day over day captures a market that is watching the Iran crisis intensify while keeping normalization firmly off the table."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxiranembassy-27/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXIRANEMBASSY-27",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ammanuel Desta: Early Edition: October 26, 2026",
      "url": "https://www.justsecurity.org/162014/early-edition-october-26-2026/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T13:20:19.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026102608 published 2026-10-26T13:20:19.000Z signature sha256-e71c90d9d8c… ← underlying event all signals →