US strikes 8-plus countries in 2026 prices below the threshold

Name: US strikes 8-plus countries in 2026 prices below the threshold
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket ladder

record: CMSIG2026071303 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-5855JBL478 | published: 2026-07-13

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder puts only 35% on the US striking 8 or more countries in 2026, with probability falling sharply above that level.
Iran attacking Gulf states including Oman raises the count of nations drawn into the conflict, but the market still prices 8-country US strike threshold as unlikely.
The distribution drops to 31% at 9 countries and 13% at 10, showing the market sees current escalation as bounded, not a regional cascade.
Resolves via Kalshi's named resolution source; the strike count methodology and what qualifies as a distinct country engagement will be the key settlement edge.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran expanded attacks on Gulf states after US strikes and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, with Iran targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Oman.exa_search → economictimes.indiatimes.com · as_of 2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00
publisher: economictimes.indiatimes.com
published_at: 2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/iran-expands-attacks-on-gulf-states-after-us-strikes-says-strait-of-hormuz-closed/articleshow/132354201.cms

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi's ladder at 35% on 8 countries in 2026 signals markets are absorbing the Gulf escalation without pricing a broad multi-country US strike campaign.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-strikes-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-35-2026-07-13/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-strikes-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-35-2026-07-13.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-strikes-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-35-2026-07-13")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071303",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "market-implied level",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts only 35% on the US striking 8 or more countries in 2026, with probability falling sharply above that level.",
    "Iran attacking Gulf states including Oman raises the count of nations drawn into the conflict, but the market still prices 8-country US strike threshold as unlikely.",
    "The distribution drops to 31% at 9 countries and 13% at 10, showing the market sees current escalation as bounded, not a regional cascade.",
    "Resolves via Kalshi's named resolution source; the strike count methodology and what qualifies as a distinct country engagement will be the key settlement edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/iran-expands-attacks-on-gulf-states-after-us-strikes-says-strait-of-hormuz-closed/articleshow/132354201.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran expanded attacks on Gulf states after US strikes and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, with Iran targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Oman.",
      "publisher": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/iran-expands-attacks-on-gulf-states-after-us-strikes-says-strait-of-hormuz-closed/articleshow/132354201.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder at 35% on 8 countries in 2026 signals markets are absorbing the Gulf escalation without pricing a broad multi-country US strike campaign."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "economictimes.indiatimes.com: Iran expands attacks on Gulf states after US strikes, says Strait of H",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/iran-expands-attacks-on-gulf-states-after-us-strikes-says-strait-of-hormuz-closed/articleshow/132354201.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071303 published 2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-b6d441f30ea… ← underlying event all signals →