US strikes fewer than 8 countries in 2026 stays favored

Name: US strikes fewer than 8 countries in 2026 stays favored
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket ladder

record: CMSIG2026072203 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-5855JBL478 | published: 2026-07-22

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Kalshi ladder prices 42% that the US strikes 8 or more countries in 2026, with volume up 9,312% day over day, the highest activity signal in today's data set.
Ongoing US strikes on Iran plus Houthi-linked Red Sea activity are driving fresh attention to this contract, reflected in the extraordinary volume surge.
The sharp drop-off above 8 countries (42%) versus above 9 countries (30%) shows the market concentrating risk at exactly the 8-country threshold.
Resolves via the named person or source; the counting methodology, what constitutes a distinct 'country struck', is the decisive settlement edge.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: US and Iranian attacks continued as tensions mounted on the Red Sea, with the conflict expanding to involve Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels.exa_search → kpbs.org · as_of 2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00
publisher: kpbs.org
published_at: 2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.kpbs.org/news/international/2026/07/22/u-s-and-iranian-attacks-continue-as-tensions-mount-on-a-key-waterway-in-the-red-sea

[02] pm_response

interp: The 9,312% volume surge on the Kalshi 'countries struck' ladder is the strongest day-over-day activity signal in today's data, flagging live market attention to escalation scope.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x713ab27f31c1d8080ea3b9c21c8a021609f8fcb7aad13a87b8b069265e7fdfda

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-strikes-below-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-ladder-58-2026-07-22/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-strikes-below-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-ladder-58-2026-07-22.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-strikes-below-8-countries-in-2026-kalshi-ladder-58-2026-07-22")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072203",
  "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Number of countries struck by US in 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder prices 42% that the US strikes 8 or more countries in 2026, with volume up 9,312% day over day, the highest activity signal in today's data set.",
    "Ongoing US strikes on Iran plus Houthi-linked Red Sea activity are driving fresh attention to this contract, reflected in the extraordinary volume surge.",
    "The sharp drop-off above 8 countries (42%) versus above 9 countries (30%) shows the market concentrating risk at exactly the 8-country threshold.",
    "Resolves via the named person or source; the counting methodology, what constitutes a distinct 'country struck', is the decisive settlement edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "kpbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.kpbs.org/news/international/2026/07/22/u-s-and-iranian-attacks-continue-as-tensions-mount-on-a-key-waterway-in-the-red-sea",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US and Iranian attacks continued as tensions mounted on the Red Sea, with the conflict expanding to involve Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels.",
      "publisher": "kpbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.kpbs.org/news/international/2026/07/22/u-s-and-iranian-attacks-continue-as-tensions-mount-on-a-key-waterway-in-the-red-sea"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The 9,312% volume surge on the Kalshi 'countries struck' ladder is the strongest day-over-day activity signal in today's data, flagging live market attention to escalation scope."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "kpbs.org: U.S. and Iranian attacks continue as tensions mount on a key waterway",
      "url": "https://www.kpbs.org/news/international/2026/07/22/u-s-and-iranian-attacks-continue-as-tensions-mount-on-a-key-waterway-in-the-red-sea",
      "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-23T10:16:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072203 published 2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-56ab64a419f… ← underlying event all signals →