2-year Treasury yield above 4.7% nears full pricing

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092507",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T21:10:07.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
  "target_event_slug": "kxustyld-26sep30",
  "event_question": "UST Par Yield Curve 2-year, Q3 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "The yield curve ladder prices 93% on the 2-year Treasury par yield exceeding 4.7% in Q3 2026, with all strikes from 3.2% to 4.6% pricing above 93%.",
    "The 30-year Treasury hitting 5.44% and the broader bond market shock are consistent with the ladder's near-certain pricing of elevated short-end yields.",
    "New York Fed President John C. Williams flagging another possible rate hike this year reinforces the ladder's high-side tilt across all measured strikes.",
    "Bitcoin's survival of the Treasury shock despite $1.7 billion in leverage cuts suggests crypto markets are partially decoupling from rate stress, though no prediction market price on that decoupling is available."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Oluwapelumi Adejumo",
          "source_url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T12:39:23+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin absorbed a 5.2% Treasury shock as traders cut leverage, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.44% and broad bond market stress accelerating.",
      "publisher": "Oluwapelumi Adejumo",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T21:10:07.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder covers Q3 2026 UST 2-year par yields; the 93% reading at 4.7% indicates the market treats sustained high short-end rates as the base case."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxustyld-26sep30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.70",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Oluwapelumi Adejumo: Bitcoin survives a 5.2% Treasury shock as traders slash $1.7 billion i",
      "url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T21:10:07.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T12:39:23+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}