Will the UST par yield curve (2-year) be at par at the end of Q3 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-07 (76D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.2% | 2026-10-07 | 89.0% | $178 | $744 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….20 | ||
| ≥ 3.3% | 2026-10-07 | 99.0% | — | $183 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….30 | ||
| ≥ 3.4% | 2026-10-07 | 98.0% | — | $102 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….40 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-10-07 | 98.0% | — | $53 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….50 | ||
| ≥ 3.6% | 2026-10-07 | 95.0% | $190 | $666 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….60 | ||
| ≥ 3.7% | 2026-10-07 | 97.0% | — | $107 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….70 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2026-10-07 | 80.0% | — | $107 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….80 | ||
| ≥ 3.9% | 2026-10-07 | 95.0% | — | $666 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….90 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-10-07 | 90.0% | — | $679 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….00 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-10-07 | 76.0% | — | $457 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….10 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-10-07 | 92.0% | — | $1.7K | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….20 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2026-10-07 | 87.0% | — | $997 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….30 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2026-10-07 | 45.0% | — | $298 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….40 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-10-07 | 18.0% | — | $209 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….50 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2026-10-07 | 20.0% | $1 | $68 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….60 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-10-07 | 1.0% | — | $2 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….70 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxustyld-26sep30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxustyld-26sep30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxustyld-26sep30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
"slug": "kxustyld-26sep30",
"question": "Will the UST par yield curve (2-year) be at par at the end of Q3 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-treasury-yields",
"fixed-income",
"q3-2026",
"yield-curve",
"economic-indicators"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7058,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}