Will the UST par yield curve (2-year) be at par at the end of Q3 2026? [ resolved 2026-09-30 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.2% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $744 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….20 | ||
| ≥ 3.3% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $183 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….30 | ||
| ≥ 3.4% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $102 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….40 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $53 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….50 | ||
| ≥ 3.6% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $666 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….60 | ||
| ≥ 3.7% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $107 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….70 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $107 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….80 | ||
| ≥ 3.9% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $666 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….90 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $679 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….00 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | $166 | $840 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….10 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….20 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | $109 | $796 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….30 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $398 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….40 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | $19 | $456 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….50 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $74 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….60 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | — | $2 | A | KXUSTYLD-26S….70 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 3.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.20%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.30%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.40%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.50%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.60%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.70%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.80%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 3.90%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.00%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.10%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.20%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.30%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.40%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.50%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.60%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.70%? | kalshi | 2026-09-30 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (16 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Two-year Treasury yield nears full pricing above 4.7 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 99% that the 2-year Treasury par yield averaged above 4.70% in Q3 2026, with all rungs from 3.20% to 4.70% also at 99%.
- The full-ladder consensus is consistent with the news narrative of stubbornly elevated yields; the market has already priced in the higher-for-longer regime.
- A companion Kalshi ladder puts only 2% odds on the 10-year yield dipping below 1% before 2027, confirming broad market alignment on elevated rates.
- Resolution is via the Federal Reserve's published H.15 par yield data for Q3 2026 average; no meaningful uncertainty remains given the 99% read across all strikes.
- 2-year Treasury yield above 4.7 percent nears full pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the 2-year UST par yield above 4.70% for Q3 2026 at 99%, reflecting near-certainty of an elevated rate environment.
- The 10-year yield at 5.22% reported in today's news is consistent with this extreme pricing at the short end of the curve.
- Bitcoin holding near $84,000 despite the bond selloff is a cross-asset divergence worth watching but is not reflected in any priced ladder event here.
- Resolution via the UST Par Yield Curve official Q3 average; any Fed emergency action before quarter-end could affect the final average used.
- Short-term Treasury yields stay heavily priced above 4.7% Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices the 2Y par yield above every strike shown through 4.7%, each at 98-99%, consistent with a regime where short rates are deeply elevated.
- The 10-year yield hitting 5.22% as reported today is directionally consistent with the ladder's near-certain pricing of 2Y yields above 4.7%.
- The ladder's flat near-100% structure across all strikes through 4.7% signals the market has already fully priced the current rate environment with no tail risk of a sharp rally.
- Resolution ties to the Federal Reserve's published par yield curve data for Q3 2026; the settlement figure is a quarterly average, not a single-day print.
- 2-year Treasury yield for Q3 2026 priced firmly above 4.7 percent Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder shows 93% probability the 2-year US Treasury par yield for Q3 2026 finishes above 4.70%, with near-certainty at every lower strike down to 3.20%.
- The Bitcoin Treasury shock story confirms elevated yields are already market reality, the ladder's distribution is consistent with a sustained high-rate environment.
- The entire ladder from 3.20% to 4.60% prices at 93 to 99%, meaning the market sees virtually no path back to pre-hike yield levels within Q3.
- Resolution via the par yield curve data series; the 30-year Treasury at 5.44% cited in the bond freakout story (Story 7) reinforces the ladder's hawkish tilt across the curve.
- 2-year Treasury yield above 4.7% nears full pricing Kalshi ladder
- The yield curve ladder prices 93% on the 2-year Treasury par yield exceeding 4.7% in Q3 2026, with all strikes from 3.2% to 4.6% pricing above 93%.
- The 30-year Treasury hitting 5.44% and the broader bond market shock are consistent with the ladder's near-certain pricing of elevated short-end yields.
- New York Fed President John C. Williams flagging another possible rate hike this year reinforces the ladder's high-side tilt across all measured strikes.
- Bitcoin's survival of the Treasury shock despite $1.7 billion in leverage cuts suggests crypto markets are partially decoupling from rate stress, though no prediction market price on that decoupling is available.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxustyld-26sep30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxustyld-26sep30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxustyld-26sep30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
"slug": "kxustyld-26sep30",
"question": "Will the UST par yield curve (2-year) be at par at the end of Q3 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-treasury-yields",
"fixed-income",
"q3-2026",
"yield-curve",
"economic-indicators"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7861,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}