2-year Treasury yield for Q3 2026 priced firmly above 4.7 percent

Name: 2-year Treasury yield for Q3 2026 priced firmly above 4.7 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-25T21:10:07.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026092507 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69 | published: 2026-09-25

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Kalshi ladder shows 93% probability the 2-year US Treasury par yield for Q3 2026 finishes above 4.70%, with near-certainty at every lower strike down to 3.20%.
The Bitcoin Treasury shock story confirms elevated yields are already market reality, the ladder's distribution is consistent with a sustained high-rate environment.
The entire ladder from 3.20% to 4.60% prices at 93 to 99%, meaning the market sees virtually no path back to pre-hike yield levels within Q3.
Resolution via the par yield curve data series; the 30-year Treasury at 5.44% cited in the bond freakout story (Story 7) reinforces the ladder's hawkish tilt across the curve.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Bitcoin survived a 5.2% Treasury shock as traders cut leverage after surging bond yields rattled risk assets.exa_search → Oluwapelumi Adejumo · as_of 2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00
publisher: Oluwapelumi Adejumo
published_at: 2026-09-25T21:10:07.000Z
source_url: https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder contract; resolution source unspecified, the par yield series source should be confirmed for settlement purposes.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxustyld-26sep30/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.70

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ust-2y-q3-2026-above-4-7-ladder-shows-93-2026-09-25/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ust-2y-q3-2026-above-4-7-ladder-shows-93-2026-09-25.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("ust-2y-q3-2026-above-4-7-ladder-shows-93-2026-09-25")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092507",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T21:10:07.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FQWTB38T69",
  "target_event_slug": "kxustyld-26sep30",
  "event_question": "UST Par Yield Curve 2-year Q3 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder shows 93% probability the 2-year US Treasury par yield for Q3 2026 finishes above 4.70%, with near-certainty at every lower strike down to 3.20%.",
    "The Bitcoin Treasury shock story confirms elevated yields are already market reality, the ladder's distribution is consistent with a sustained high-rate environment.",
    "The entire ladder from 3.20% to 4.60% prices at 93 to 99%, meaning the market sees virtually no path back to pre-hike yield levels within Q3.",
    "Resolution via the par yield curve data series; the 30-year Treasury at 5.44% cited in the bond freakout story (Story 7) reinforces the ladder's hawkish tilt across the curve."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Oluwapelumi Adejumo",
          "source_url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin survived a 5.2% Treasury shock as traders cut leverage after surging bond yields rattled risk assets.",
      "publisher": "Oluwapelumi Adejumo",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T21:10:07.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; resolution source unspecified, the par yield series source should be confirmed for settlement purposes."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxustyld-26sep30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXUSTYLD-26SEP30-T4.70",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Oluwapelumi Adejumo: Bitcoin survives a 5.2% Treasury shock as traders slash $1.7 billion i",
      "url": "https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-survives-a-5-2-treasury-shock-as-traders-slash-1-7-billion-in-leverage/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T21:10:07.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092507 published 2026-09-25T21:10:07.000Z signature sha256-d9450949c91… ← underlying event all signals →